The Temperament Factor: Who's Best Suited to the Job?

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McCain suggests that Obama is risky because he never takes any risks. When has he ever stood up to his own party? McCain asks. "What has this man ever actually accomplished in government?" The questions are legitimate because we know there are times when a President has to gamble, and yet we know very little about Obama's appetite for it. When George H.W. Bush marshaled dozens of allies to push Saddam Hussein out of Kuwait, when Ronald Reagan stared down the Soviets with intermediate-range missiles, when F.D.R. went off on a Caribbean cruise and dreamed up the lend-lease program — and then managed to sell it to a highly skeptical public — all represent moments of leadership that required brinkmanship as well as salesmanship, a flair for grand strategy as well as a fine sense of tactics.

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TIME's Michael Duffy and Nancy Gibbs sit down with prominent historians to discuss the most elusive of requirements for a president: Temperament.

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On the other hand, if Obama has run a risk-averse campaign, and McCain at times a reckless one, it may reflect reality as much as reflexes. "Two candidates aren't starting on a level playing field," argues Russell Riley of the Miller Center of Public Affairs. "We hear a lot about John McCain throwing Hail Mary passes. Well, there are certain times in football games when a Hail Mary pass is called for." At a time when the gop is in shambles and its brand worth about the same as mortgage-backed securities, any Republican candidate would need to change the dynamic of the game. You can judge how well he throws the pass, but you have to value him with some kind of discount, Riley says, "as opposed to a candidate who inherits a four-touchdown lead with 10 minutes left to go on the clock."

The Perfect Temperament

Both men have shown they will do what's necessary to win. For Obama, that meant trimming positions on offshore drilling, gun control, nafta, Cuba, public campaign funding, fisa. And in choosing Joe Biden, he acknowledged that when it comes to making change happen, a working knowledge of the old ways may still be useful. McCain has reinvented himself as well, arguing against the Bush tax cuts when they were temporary but now wanting to make them permanent, which is like marrying someone you didn't want to date. Eight years ago, he waffled on Roe; now he wants to overturn it. He now denounces Supreme Court justices he voted to confirm.

This is the first election in our lifetimes, and maybe ever, when almost 9 out of 10 people think the country is going in the wrong direction. We have bridges falling into our rivers and children dropping out of our schools and an abiding sense that the American Century that let us shine as a beacon to the world is giving way to one in which we can't afford the electric bills. And yet the historians sitting around the table are more comfortable with ambiguity than is a voter heading into the booth. Even in crisis, they say, there is no perfect presidential temperament. "You want the right blend of confidence and humility," argues Yale historian Beverly Gage. "And you want someone who has the confidence to make big decisions, to act in crisis, but who also has the humility to listen to other people, to be flexible in those moments. So when does confidence become arrogance, and when does humility become insecurity and inability to make decisions? All of these are so elusive, it doesn't seem that you can come up with a single prescription."