Learning Curve

Much of the world senses a connection with U.S. President-elect Barack Obama. The feeling appears mutual. Obama has repeatedly said that his background (childhood in Indonesia, father from Kenya) enables him to better understand other nations and cultures. He will need that understanding, especially in Asia, where the U.S. is fighting a war in Afghanistan, battling terrorism in Pakistan and learning to cope with rising powers China and India, among other challenges. Here's Obama's main Asia agenda, and what he should do about it.

The war on terror. Obama has called for the U.S. to focus anew on Afghanistan and Pakistan, including sending two more combat brigades to Afghanistan and coordinating the counterterror fight more closely with Islamabad. In office, though, Obama may well wind up playing the same unilateral hand as George W. Bush — launching American precision strikes against targets because he can't trust the Pakistani military. Instead, Obama would be wise to look to Indonesia. There, the government enlisted public opinion in the terror fight and combined it with capable police work. Rather than simply pouring unconditional U.S. aid into Pakistan and Afghanistan, Obama needs to federalize the assistance, working more closely with provincial and local leaders. And, as the U.S. did in Indonesia, in Pakistan and Afghanistan Obama should shift resources away from the regular army to fund a new, élite counterterrorism unit.

Rogue nations. Given his belief in dialogue, Obama has vowed to talk with America's enemies, or at least ideological opponents. In Asia, that means primarily North Korea. Obama should step up direct negotiations with Pyongyang. By talking one-on-one with Kim Jong Il, he would telegraph that the U.S. will no longer outsource North Korea policy — demonstrating to any future North Korean leadership that, if they play nice, Washington will woo them, and to Beijing that, if Kim falls, the U.S. will not stand by and let the North become a Chinese satellite.

The new powers. One of the biggest accomplishments of the Bush presidency was transforming America's relationship with India. Obama has pledged to build on this success, which is a win-win strategy for both parties. But while it courted India, the Bush White House maintained a stable if cool relationship with China. Obama has a chance to right the relationship — his understated, consensual style will play well in Beijing, and he will probably try to get China into big-power clubs such as the G-8. Yet the combination of a Democratic President and a Democratic Congress may mean China hawks on Capitol Hill will feel bold enough to smack Beijing on Tibet and other human-rights issues.

That will risk alienating the Chinese people. Obama should take a lesson from the Cold War: American Presidents criticized Soviet leaders while demonstrating respect for average Soviets — and winning Soviet hearts and minds in the process. Obama could make clear that any China critiques apply only to the leadership; one way would be to simply replace mentions of China with references to the Communist Party in every State Department report. At the same time, he could boost U.S.-China person-to-person links by expanding student visas, opening more U.S. consulates in interior China and restoring State Department visitor and exchange programs.

Trade. During the election campaign, Obama, needing the support of labor unions and working-class voters, vowed a dramatic retreat from America's free-trade agenda. He opposes the U.S. – South Korea trade deal and promised "a change from the U.S. policy approach [toward China] of the past eight years," including possible new restrictions on Chinese imports. The deteriorating American economy and job picture will make it nearly impossible for Obama to shift and become a free trader. Yet a regionwide free-trade area will eventually be Asia's future. Obama needs to embrace that, while simultaneously investing in American job retraining and working with internationalist elements of his party to convince average Democrats that, in the long run, retreating from trade will mean retreating from U.S. power. If Obama leaves a country cut off from Asia as his poisoned legacy, any other regional accomplishments will matter little.