Ocalan Fallout Spreads

Chaos theory 101: Catch a rebel Kurd in Kenya, and you set off a chain of unpredictable, even violent events as far away as Berlin, Athens, Jerusalem and northern Iraq. While Israel Thursday agonized over being drawn into an extraneous conflict following the killing of Kurdish protesters who invaded its Berlin consulate Wednesday, Greece fired three of its top cabinet ministers amid a storm of domestic criticism over its failure to protect Abdullah Ocalan.

Even as Turkey launched a new offensive against Ocalan's supporters inside Turkey and in northern Iraq Wednesday, it found itself on the defensive against European governments urging a fair, open trial for the Kurdish rebel. Turkey has forbidden Ocalan's German attorney from entering the country, and rejects allowing foreign observers at the trial. Its plan to seek the death penalty is also likely to inflame tensions with Europe. "Turkey may have captured Ocalan without thinking through some of the consequences we're now seeing," says Dowell. "They may have dealt a body blow to Ocalan's organization, but the underlying impulse that created it hasn't changed -- he may actually achieve more as Turkey's prisoner than he could ever achieve as a guerrilla fighter."