What's at Stake in U.S.'s Missile Musings

Last week's test-ban debacle may pale before the looming U.S.-Russia confrontation over the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty. Moscow indicated Wednesday that it has no intention of renegotiating the treaty in order to allow Washington to build an anti-missile shield, which the White House says is needed to protect against weapons lobbed by rogue nations or groups. Russia's objection was underscored Thursday by a United Nations resolution, cosponsored by China, demanding strict compliance with the ABM pact. That's bad news for Washington, since the treaty, which prevents nations from building anti-missile defense systems because those might allow the firing of nuclear weapons without the disastrous consequences of a retaliatory strike, is the cornerstone of Cold War-era arms control. The Clinton administration insists its concern is North Korea, Iraq and other loose cannons, and has even offered to help the Russians build their own system. But Moscow remains unconvinced; even such U.S. allies as France are harshly critical of Washington’s plans.

If further attempts to coax the Russians into a deal elicit a negative response, the question becomes whether Washington would be prepared to sacrifice the Cold War-era arms control framework in order to unilaterally build a missile shield. Despite its popularity on Capitol Hill, the multibillion-dollar project isn’t necessarily a favorite in the defense community. "It’s generally recognized in security circles that the U.S. faces a far greater threat from biological warfare than from nuclear weapons, and that long-range missiles are among the least likely delivery systems that would be chosen by terrorists and rogue states wanting to attack the U.S.," says TIME United Nations correspondent William Dowell. "And then of course there’s skepticism over whether such systems can actually be made to work." With Moscow threatening to augment its missile fleet if the 1972 treaty is broken, there may be a lot more at stake in the ABM debate than simply wackos with missiles.