Attitude to Graft Will Reveal the Real Putin

The war in Chechnya has served its purpose for Vladimir Putin, but Russia's economy will be a considerably tougher challenge. Having used Russia's military campaign in the breakaway region to project himself as the can-do sheriff to clean up the mess bequeathed by Boris Yeltsin, Putin has comfortably won Russia's second-ever presidential election, although by a margin not quite as convincing as had been expected (despite some last-minute gay- and Jew-baiting by his media backers aimed at pushing Putin over the top). And the strongest testimony to the problems he'll face in office may be that a decade after being run out of town, the Communist party is still drawing the support of almost one in three active voters, whose nostalgia is fueled by the fact that Yeltsinomics left the majority of Russians considerably poorer than they'd been under communism.

Their nihilistic vote for the past finds its alter ego in the high expectations of many of Putin's own supporters, who are looking to the new president to whip into shape an economy and society that languish not far from collapse with the same ruthless efficiency he displayed in Chechnya. In the short term, however, they may have to bite the bullet, as Putin advisers on the weekend warned of imminent "unpopular" economic measures.

While Western media speculate over whether the former KGB colonel is a throwback to communist-era authoritarianism or simply a cipher invented by Yeltsin's backers to continue business as usual, his first hundred days will quickly reveal the meaning of his election. Even if he plans to strengthen the authority of the state, that may even enhance capitalist Russia's revival — after all, right now the enfeebled Yeltsin state is hardly managing to collect taxes, let alone create the strict legal underpinnings of a market economy or promote growth. But the more immediate indicator of Putin's plans will be whether and how he makes good on his promise to weed out corruption. While he's presented himself as the "Untouchable" who'll wipe out graft, his rise over a mere five months from nonentity to president-elect has been facilitated by the very same financial-political interests who backed Yeltsin. So the question now may be whether Putin is prepared to bite the hand that's fed him.