But let's do it anyway. After all, we're running out of days to say "if the election were held today" — three days from now, the election will be actually be held. So on the final weekend of the race, let's take all the Gore states, all the Bush states, all the battleground states, and give 'em to whoever's winning. And see what happens.
Gore looks to have 12 with safe leads, plus D.C. (3): California (54), Connecticut (8), Delaware (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (22), Iowa (7), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (12), New Jersey (15), New York (33), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3). Total: 178
Bush has 21: Texas (32), Alaska (3), Alabama (9), Colorado (8), Georgia (13), Idaho (4), Indiana (12), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (9) Mississippi (7), Montana (3), Nebraska (5), North Carolina (14), South Carolina (8), North Dakota (3), South Dakota (3), Oklahoma (8), Utah (5), Virginia (13), Wyoming (3). Total: 176
And now for the 20 "battlegrounds," loosest to tightest, with each going to its most recent leader. (And running subtotals!)
Michigan (18): Gore, 50-41 (Zogby) Gore subtotal: 196
Ohio (21): Bush, 48-40 (Zogby, 11/1) Bush subtotal: 197
Florida (25): Gore, 48-41 (Zogby) Gore subtotal: 221
New Hampshire (4): Bush, 45-40 (American Research Group, 11/1) Bush subtotal: 201
Missouri (11): Bush, 47-43 (Zogby, 10/31) Bush subtotal: 212
Nevada (4): Bush, 47-43 (Zogby, 10/28) Bush subtotal: 216
Pennsylvania (23): Gore, 46-42 (Zogby, 10/31) Gore subtotal: 244
Tennessee (11): Bush, 49-46 (Zogby, 10/31) Bush subtotal: 227
Wisconsin (11): Gore, 45-42 (Zogby, 11/1) Gore subtotal: 255
Minnesota (10): Gore, 44-41 (Mason-Dixon, 10/27) Gore subtotal: 265
New Mexico (5): Bush, 44-41 (Mason-Dixon, 9/30) Bush subtotal: 232
West Virginia (5): Bush, 41-39 (W.Va. Research. Ctr., 10/31) Bush subtotal: 237
Washington (11): Gore, 45-43 (Zogby, 11/1) Gore subtotal: 276
DING DING DING DING!!! Gore clears 270. We have a winner.
Oregon (7): Gore, 45-44 (Davis-Hibbits, 10/30) Gore subtotal: 283
Arizona (8): Bush, 45-44. (Mason-Dixon, 10/29) Bush subtotal: 245
Arkansas (6): Bush, 45-44. (Mason-Dixon, 10/29) Bush subtotal: 251
Maine (4): EVEN, 42-42 (WCSH/WLBZ TV, 10/30)
Give Maine to Bush on the law enforcement vote for a total of 255 — it doesn't matter. If the election were held today, and if these polls are accurate, Bush wins the popular vote, Gore wins the electoral college count, 283-255, and becomes president, to general consternation. (Wouldn't it be just like Gore to win without being preferred by a majority?)
Disclaimer: There's a reason why these states are still called battlegrounds. Not only is any lead under 8 points or so surmountable, it barely exists after margin-of-error allowances. Turnout will decide each and every one of these races, and that's something you can't quantify till Tuesday. States to watch: Michigan, Florida, Pennsylvania, all counted in Gore's column but each big enough by itself to swing the count to Bush. An improbable California win — or a very possible Oregon-Washington swing — would do the trick as well, which is why it's likely Election Day will be worth watching all the way into Wednesday.
That said, Gore wins, and Bush goes home scratching his head. Turns out the presidency isn't a popularity contest after all. Now, isn't that better than spending the weekend in suspense?