Behind McCain's Campaign Chaos

Every serious candidate for President has his share of difficult days. But few are as horrendous, especially this many months before primary season begins, as the one John McCain suffered through Tuesday. Just an hour before he had to go to the floor of the Senate to defend President Bush's Iraq policy against a growing Republican rebellion, the onetime frontrunner for the GOP nomination accepted the resignation of his top two campaign staffers, manager Terry Nelson and chief strategist John Weaver. And almost as soon as he wrapped up his Iraq speech, he was besieged with rumors that another top adviser was bolting, and tried his best to refute growing speculation that his once promising campaign is all but finished.

Nelson arrived a year ago; a veteran of the Bush 2004 campaign, his presence was the most concrete example that McCain 2008 was intended to be a sequel to the incumbent President's successful re-election run four years ago. Nelson's resignation, say aides, came after a fraught 10 days of debate in the wake of the campaign's second quarter fundraising results, which showed an astonishing "burn rate" that left the campaign with just over $2 million cash on hand, after raising just $11.2 million. According to campaign sources, the disappointing take, combined with accusations of disastrous spending decisions, spurred Nelson to offer to leave as the third quarter started. The senator, however, was swayed by the arguments of Weaver and longtime chief of staff Mark Salter, and asked that Nelson continue. The rapprochement was short lived. Friction between Weaver — who backed Nelson — and Rick Davis, then the campaign's CEO and now its newly installed manager, over spending and strategy led to a situation that one aide called "untenable." Weaver, aides say, was concerned about bringing in Davis over Nelson; a lobbyist with the firm Davis, Manafort & Freedman, Inc., Davis had a worrisome list of clients and had been responsible, according to campaign insiders, for some of the early budgeting decisions that now haunted the campaign. The New York Times has reported that Davis is a board member for the firm 3EDC, to whome the campaign owed $175,802 at the end of the first quarter.

After an anxious meeting on Monday, in which Nelson and Weaver watched the Senator agonize over the budget, Nelson approached McCain Tuesday morning with his offer to resign. Once McCain accepted, Weaver felt he had no choice but to leave as well.

Nelson brought with him many hands from Bush World, whose loyalty is now torn. Aides suspect there will be some who choose to leave in solidarity with Nelson, but the biggest disruption to the campaign comes from McCain's break with Weaver, who has long served as McCain's chief strategist and message crafter, close friend and flak-catcher — or as many observers have noted, his Karl Rove.

Of course, given how poorly the campaign has been faring of late, some would say a major shakeup was necessary. For all the ways that McCain controlled his own message, the campaign itself got away from him. On a day-to-day basis, McCain focused on getting through a rigorous fundraising schedule, more and more as the campaign went on, his Senate duties. Weaver, along with campaign manager Nelson, oversaw what was spent and where. Insiders say that when the final numbers were finally presented, the senator was dismayed. "A lot of us were scratching our heads, wondering about the decisions of what to spend where," says a source close to the campaign, though the source declined to specify what expenditures, precisely, were problematic. Rather, says the source, the problem was global: the campaign leadership saw the disappointing numbers from the first quarter, March 31st, and decided "to try and raise more money rather than spend less."

In hindsight, that decision seems plainly misguided. By late March, McCain had already lost his frontrunner status to Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani, the potential candidacy of Fred Thompson loomed large, he'd shown little promise in raising money, and was headed into a vicious immigration debate that, in a BEST case scenario, would simply be over quickly. But the campaign's leadership continued to work under the assumption that McCain was a once and future frontrunner. "We're going to run a national campaign," Weaver would say confidently. Now, the campaign says it will concentrate on Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. Weaver and Nelson's departures, observers aligned with the campaign say, will bring the strategy in line with — to borrow a phrase — "facts on the ground." One donor noted that the shifts are part of McCain's attempt to reassert himself as the leader of the campaign in general, not just as the author of his own talking points.

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