A Focus on Jobs in Michigan

When it comes right down to it, the most significant difference between McCain and Romney on economic policy in Michigan is that Romney is telling Michigan voters what they want to hear. Even at the hyperbolically upbeat Detroit Auto Show, Doug Fox, the president of the group that organizes the largest auto show in North America, was skeptical that anyone — even Mitt Romney — could keep auto manufacturing jobs in the state. "Oh, those jobs are going to change," he said, moments before Romney entered the glitzy showroom. "It's going to be high-tech jobs that come here."

Diana Fox is one of those displaced workers that needs a high-tech job — or any job. Listening in on a McCain town hall, she admitted his answers on the economy were dispiriting: "I was disappointed," she said. Her husband Jeff, a manager in a metal stamper plant, jumped in: "But he's straight on. He comes out and tells you you're not gonna like his answer."

In the end, the battle between McCain and Romney might come down to turnout. University of Michigan political science professor Michael Traugott expects turnout to be dramatically lower than in previous years, in part because of the sense that Michigan's role in the primary process will not matter as much. The betting is that low turnout would favor Romney, who can count on the support of die-hard Republican voters (the latest polls have him leading McCain among that group by 11 points). If McCain can turn out independents, as he did in New Hampshire, he could win — not easily, but then again, he doesn't have to win by much to give himself a real boost and Romney's campaign yet another silver medal going into South Carolina's primary on Saturday.