Who Can Lead Us Out of This Mess?

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People like a President who seems to share their passions, tastes and grievances, so McCain probably struck a chord with his obvious loathing of the "Wall Street tycoons" and backroom Washington dealmakers he holds responsible for this mess. It's his nature to see problems in terms of personal culpability; while other leaders were debating the best way to set a price for distressed debt, McCain was calling for the head of Christopher Cox, chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission. Both Obama and McCain maintained that greed is the root cause of our troubles, but in Obama's mouth it sounded like a diagnosis, whereas from McCain the word landed like an indictment.

McCain's advisers, like former Treasury Secretary Nicholas Brady, have helped him identify a tax proposal that speaks to the underlying cause of the meltdown. Compared with most other developed countries, the U.S. has relatively high taxes on corporations that produce goods and services and relatively low taxes on consumption. "For example," McCain observed, "Ireland now has an 11% business tax. The United States of America has a 35% business tax. Where are businesses going to go?"

McCain's solution is pretty basic: Cut the corporate tax. The trouble is that his corporate tax cut isn't part of a larger overhaul of the tax code that would reward savings and investment while curbing deficit spending — whether by individuals, private institutions or the government. The cut is only one among many in a budget that is wildly out of balance. How would President McCain convince people that they can't have a bigger flat-screen than they can afford while he's running a government that promises more services than it has money for? Neither McCain nor Obama has put forth any concrete plan for deficit reduction. If, as the latest polls suggest, McCain is seen as less credible on the economy than Obama is — and losing ground as a result — the reason is probably that his evasion of reality feels staler than his opponent's. A Republican offering specific tax cuts but only vague pledges to reduce spending is old hat for today's voters. Although Sarah Palin helped McCain reclaim his maverick mantle for a few weeks, this meltdown has once again marked him with the Bush brand.

Where Do They Stand?
A year ago, most people thought this would be an election dominated by foreign policy. More recently, it looked like an election about gas prices. The candidates are still adjusting to a campaign about collateralized debt obligations.

Obama and McCain have been cautious in adapting their messages to the new reality because no one is sure what the new reality actually means. But they may be reluctant to show their hands in an economy that can turn from forgiving to punishing overnight. On balance, McCain would be a lower-tax, lower-spending President who would agree to stiff regulation when necessary. Obama would be quicker to spend, quicker to regulate but also probably faster to react to economic weakness at home. The choice might be as much about reflexes as about ideology.

Clearly, the meltdown poses a problem for the next President. But is it the problem — a force so fundamental that it flattens everything in its path? Are the agendas and ambitions, the pet policies and platforms of Senator Maverick and Senator Change about to be squashed under the weight of a long, deep recession?

Neither of these men is an economist, and after eight years of an MBA President, America will forgive them for that. What we seek is a leader who can size up a problem, explain it in a way that seems both true and hopeful and match the nation's priorities to its needs. Here's the crisis — which man is up to it? They have a month left to give us their answers.

— With reporting by Jay Newton-Small and Michael Scherer / Washington

(Click here for photos of Barack Obama.)