How Obama and McCain Would Lead

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That said, Obama may have less to fear from congressional leaders pushing rival agendas than did his bedeviled predecessors Carter and Clinton. Those earlier Democrats faced Congresses dominated by complacent chairmen who had never known a gop majority. Today's Democratic leaders know what it's like to lose the perks — and opportunities — of power. Having reoccupied the plush offices of the Capitol, they might appreciate the idea that being in the same party sometimes means staying on the same page. Then there is the question of taxes. Obama has made overhauling the tax code a centerpiece of his campaign. In the real world of Washington, his plan is a mixture of commonplace steps (tweaking income tax rates) and unprecedented measures (a new approach to payroll taxes). The likelihood that he will get anything like the tax package he has outlined — or even that he'll seek all the changes he has promised — is remote as long as the economy is struggling. After all, what's the point of raising corporate taxes when companies aren't profitable or raising capital-gains taxes when stock prices and real estate values are plummeting? Even a gung-ho tax raiser like Representative Barney Frank of Massachusetts acknowledges that the economic climate is wrong. "Not now," Frank said recently of tax hikes.

What shape would Obama take on the world stage? It's folly to predict. Events are moving too quickly. When Obama launched his campaign last year, the biggest issue in the world was Iraq. Now the public's interest — and U.S. involvement there — is dwindling almost by the day. Obama's bumper-sticker plan for Afghanistan — more troops to catch bin Laden — is being swallowed up in a befuddling tangle of intractable issues, ranging from the Afghan heroin trade to the instability of Kashmir. Foreign policy breeds surprises in American Presidents: Nixon went to China; Reagan proposed nuclear disarmament; Bush changed from "humble" to imperial in a single morning. Compounding the unpredictability is the excitement Obama's candidacy has stirred in parts of the world. Will the novelty of a multiracial President with a Kenyan name have tangible diplomatic benefits? A scientist would say there are no data.

However, when it comes to the numbers Washington understands best — votes and money — Obama may be stronger, politically, than any other Democrat in years. Thanks to his extraordinary success in building an independent campaign, Obama would sit down with special interests knowing that his mailing list is bigger than theirs and his ability to raise money puts theirs in the shade. A capital that used to be impressed by the Bush family's thousands-strong Christmas-card list boggles at the millions of names in Obama's digital address book. If his lead in the polls stands up through Election Day, he'll win more than 50% of the popular vote — something Bill Clinton never achieved.

President McCain

Like so many trailing candidates before him, McCain recently evoked the memory of Truman's come-from-behind victory in 1948. More than most, though, McCain actually flourishes as an underdog, and it's easy to picture him grinning broadly as he brandishes a newspaper — or screen grab — with the mistaken headline Obama Defeats Mccain. Unfortunately, the howling aftermath of a McCain miracle is just as easy to imagine: liberals blaming an eruption of racism; Democrats complaining of a dirty campaign; conspiracy theorists charging voting-machine fraud; conservatives piling rhetorical firewood under the feet of gop defectors like Colin Powell, Charles Fried and Scott McClellan. "Both sides of Pennsylvania Avenue will be itching for a fight," predicts Republican insider Ed Rogers. "It will be ugly."

See pictures of Obama's campaign behind the scenes.

See pictures of McCain's final push.