How Obama and McCain Would Lead

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Americans have shown a taste for divided government in recent decades but maybe not as divided as the early years of a McCain presidency would be. The Republican President would face not only a crowd of resentful Democrats on Capitol Hill but also deep splits within his own party. The closing weeks of McCain's campaign produced a soap opera of Republican dysfunction. McCain gambled his hopes on a bold move to pass a Wall Street rescue plan. House Republicans cut him loose and defeated the bill, sending the stock market crashing and swinging the momentum to Obama. A steady parade of prominent Republicans jumped ship. McCain's aides and supporters began the ritual finger-pointing that is the political version of hospice care, while Palin and others dear to the gop base subtly started jockeying for advantage in 2012.

So President McCain would find himself alone in hostile territory, beset by foes of every variety. Just the way he likes it. If any politician in recent memory could find success in that environment, it might be McCain. All his greatest hits as a Senator are variations on the same theme: If both sides are mad at me, I must be doing something right. His crusade for campaign-finance reforms was opposed by interest groups ranging from naral on the left to the nra on the right. His "Gang of 14" compromise on judicial nominations derailed true-believer hopes on both sides for a spectacular train wreck. His stubborn advocacy for a troop surge in Iraq annoyed the antiwar left and the Bush supporters of the right. McCain understands that the decisive slice of the American public is highly skeptical of both political poles. At his most authentic, he harnesses public opinion to neutralize the extremes.

What works for a legislator — who picks and chooses his battles — might be impossible for a President, however. Given the relentless, unscheduled traffic of crises through the Oval Office, he needs a reliable roster of allies. McCain would probably court the center by appointing some Democrats to his Administration — a move he has signaled throughout his campaign. (He shocked his party when he suggested New York liberal Andrew Cuomo to head the Securities and Exchange Commission and said he would love to have Obama supporter Warren Buffett as his Treasury Secretary.) He might be able to sign a cap-and-trade energy bill — though it would hurt him with gop conservatives. He might be able to please the right with some judicial appointments — but that would hurt him with Democrats. He could please hawks by rattling his saber at Iran and reach out to doves by using his credibility as the son and grandson of admirals to cut some Pentagon waste.

At a deeper level, the McCain years would see a constant tug-of-war between the President's pragmatic head and his instinctive, idealistic heart. His impulse to denounce pork barrelers — "I will make them famous," he likes to promise — would compete with his need to curry favor with as many allies in Washington as he can find. His desire to leave a mark on history — by signing a Democratic energy bill or health-care-reform bill, say — would clash with his gut-level identification with the gop. Washington veterans agree that McCain's conservative ideas for tax cuts and health-care reform wouldn't stand a chance in a Democratic Congress. But he might enlist enough swing-district Democrats — whose hold on their seats is tenuous — to join congressional Republicans in a grand compromise between the spenders on Capitol Hill and the tax cutters in the White House.

Who would be pulling for him through thick and thin though? No matter how much the Democrats might like striking deals with McCain, in the end they would be planning his demise in the next election. Meanwhile, given his age (72) and the long history of mistrust between McCain and the Republican right, his other flank would be in danger too. Conservatives would probably demand a steady stream of vetoes of Democratic legislation, and any failure to deliver would strengthen his younger gop rivals. The McCain-Palin relationship would be Washington's answer to King Arthur and Mordred.

See pictures of Obama's campaign behind the scenes.

See pictures of McCain's final push.