Why Arizona Is Not a Lock for McCain

If their downtown offices in Phoenix are any clue, Democrats are certainly outworking their GOP counterparts. I visited the Democratic headquarters Sunday evening and found four dozen or so volunteers busily making calls inside; a few were even outside on their cell phones for lack of space. The Republican headquarters, by contrast, was empty and locked.

The Dems' volunteer office in Cottonwood is an example of how far grass-roots Democrats have come, virtually on their own. McCain likes to say that his ranch is in Sedona, a liberal bastion that sent an Obama delegate to the Democratic National Convention and will more than likely go for Obama on Election Day. But his homestead is actually in a little town 8 miles from Sedona called Cornville, in Yavapai County. Until recently, it was hard to imagine Yavapai, an old blue collar farming and mill town that used to supply the nearby copper mines, ever voting for a Democrat. The county went 59% for Bush in 2000 and 61% for him in 2004. But the demographics of the county — much like Arizona's and the Southwest's as a whole — are shifting.

The beautiful setting — this is where the famous Red Rock canyons meet the Verde Valley — and cheaper real estate in proximity to the resort area of Sedona have drawn developers. The area, a 90-min. drive from Phoenix, has become an exurban magnate and a retirement destination for folks like Anderson, who retired here from Colorado eight years ago. With construction now at a virtual standstill, the county — much like Phoenix — has been one of the areas worst hit by the economic crisis and housing bust. Last year, Prescott, the largest town in Yavapai, elected its first Democratic mayor ever. Governor Janet Napolitano, a Democrat, lost Yavapai by 5,000 votes when she was first elected in 2000 but won it by 10,500 in 2006. And the area's congressional seat — being vacated by Republican Rick Renzi, who is under indictment for extortion, money-laundering and wire fraud (charges he has denied) — is most likely going to be picked up by a Democrat.

If Dems can win that seat and successfully defend two others, they will hold a majority — five of the state's eight members of the House — of the delegation for the first time since 1966. "Democrats have been mobilizing in ways unseen before in the state," says Fred Solop, chair of the political-science department at Northern Arizona University. "They have a shot at capturing the state house for the first time since 1966." Analysts say they also have a shot at taking back the state senate, which they haven't controlled since 1992.

Republican National Committee spokesman Danny Diaz scoffs at the idea that McCain could ever lose Arizona, calling it "unreasonable, irrational and fanciful." McCain won re-election in 2004 with nearly 77% of the vote, and President Bush expanded his own win in Arizona from 51% in 2000 to 55% in 2004. Obama is "entitled to waste resources" in Arizona, Diaz says, but "there's virtually no chance of him carrying the state."

(See pictures of John McCain's final push on the campaign trail.)

(See pictures of voting machines.)