Why Arizona Is Not a Lock for McCain

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However, Democrats argue that McCain is a "national" Senator who has spent more time in New Hampshire than in Arizona these past 18 months. In theoretical matchups for McCain's 2010 Senate re-election, he trails Napolitano by double digits. "McCain won his own primary by less than 50% here," says Weeg. "Half of the registered voters in Arizona have seen John McCain's name on the ballot once or never — that is how much the state has changed."

Part of McCain's weakness is with the Latino vote — the same demographic outraged by the Republicans' anti-immigration push over the past few years, which has helped propel Obama in neighboring New Mexico, Nevada and Colorado. While McCain has long had a reputation as a moderate on immigration, during the primary season he distanced himself from the 2006 bill he had co-sponsored that offered a path to citizenship. That has not exactly endeared him to the 1.8 million Latinos living in Arizona, who make up 4% of the U.S. Latino population. The Pew Center estimates that there are 677,525 eligible Latino voters, the majority of them under age 30, accounting for 17% of voters in the Grand Canyon State. "The Hispanic vote has been challenging," Diaz concedes. "Some of that can be directly attributed to the debate on immigration, but keep in mind that Senator McCain, especially in his home state, is well known and is trusted and has stood up for all of his constituents, including Hispanics, time and time again."

Though it has aired no advertising in Arizona, the GOP is clearly nervous. A round of robocalls was launched last week, falsely calling Obama a terrorist and deceptively warning targeted seniors that, if elected, he'd halt their Medicare and Social Security payments. McCain, who is holding his victory rally in Phoenix, is expected to return home Monday and deliver a rally in none other than Prescott, speaking on the steps of the Yavapai County Courthouse, where Barry Goldwater launched his senatorial and presidential campaigns.

Eight years ago, the Verde Valley Democratic Party consisted of three guys who registered with the state party but for years struggled to get a quorum. The group now has hundreds of members and has helped to register thousands of voters this cycle. While there's little chance of Obama carrying Yavapai County, the group hopes it can pull off a good enough showing that, when added to what Dems are hoping will be record turnout in big urban areas, especially in Pima County, the state might swing to Obama. "Then, I'd go out and buy a bigger sign," says Michael Cosentino, one of the three founders of the Verde Valley Democratic organization, "and put it up so that every time McCain comes home and drives by, he can't miss us."

(See pictures of John McCain's final push on the campaign trail.)

(See pictures of voting machines.)