Who Will Win Obama's Senate Seat?

As confidence grew in recent weeks that Barack Obama would be the next President of the United States, a battle intensified among various Illinois politicos to fill his Senate seat. Although a number of local leaders have publicly expressed interest in the position, the decision on who will complete the roughly two years remaining in Obama's Senate term ultimately rests with Illinois governor Rod Blagojevich, a Democrat and former Congressman. Blagojevich was elected governor in 2002 after having cast himself as an anti-tax reformer, but his popularity has plummeted, and political observers say his prickly personality has crippled his ability to pass legislation in the state's general assembly. "It's hard to say how this will play out, because he is so unpredictable," says Kent Redfield, a political science professor at the University of Illinois at Springfield, in the state's capital. "Ultimately, the calculation will be what helps him politically, in terms of survival."

Illinois law offers little guidance on how the governor should choose a replacement for a sitting U.S. Senator or even when. The timing will depend, in part, on when Obama formally vacates the post. Observers expect Blagojevich to move quickly, to allow Obama's successor to gain seniority ahead of the incoming class of Senators.

Identity politics may play a major part in Blagojevich's decision. Observers believe the governor may feel compelled to appease two of his core constituencies — women and blacks, particularly those from his native Chicago area — that could prove crucial to his prospects should he seek re-election in 2010. He may feel extra pressure to replace the Senate's only black member with another African American. One of the names most frequently mentioned here is Jesse Jackson Jr., a veteran Congressman who represents parts of Chicago's South Side and was a national co-chair of Obama's presidential campaign.

In an interview Monday, Jackson told TIME, "I'd be honored and humbled to succeed Senator Obama in the U.S. Senate. I'm confident the governor will make a decision in the best interest of the state and country." But Blagojevich could also opt for a sort of placeholder figure to complete Obama's term and allow Democrats to find a long-term candidate for 2010. Among the prominent black politicians the governor could turn to in that scenario are Illinois secretary of state Jesse White and Emil Jones Jr., the recently retired president of the Illinois state senate and one of Blagojevich's few general assembly allies.

One of the first candidates to express interest in succeeding Obama was Representative Jan Schakowsky, a suburban Chicago Democrat. On Monday, she told TIME, "I'd certainly be interested in that position." Observers say Blagojevich could also turn to Illinois' popular attorney general, Lisa Madigan, in a move that may eliminate one of his chief potential rivals for 2010, although there would be nothing stopping Madigan from returning to run for governor. But in a statement Monday, Madigan said, "Given the political situation here, I think it's safe to say that I'm an unlikely choice."

Blagojevich's office did not return calls seeking comment.

One long-shot scenario: Blagojevich could appoint himself to fill Obama's Senate seat. It would potentially be a way for him to get a fresh start in a new office. But Redfield said such a move "would be totally out of line with what I think is going on. It's all pretty wild."

See pictures of Obama's victory speech in Chicago.