Monday, Nov. 03, 2008

Why Arizona Is Not a Lock for McCain

By Jay Newton-Small / Sedona

Eight miles down the road from John McCain's picturesque Arizona ranch, two dozen Democratic volunteers sat crammed into a second-floor strip-mall suite above a nail salon on Sunday morning making calls to persuade Arizonans to vote for the man running against their longtime Senator.

"I think [Obama] can win here," says Jane Anderson, 64, a retired principal from nearby Clarkdale. The independent voter heard about the effort "in Wal-Mart, of all places" 10 days ago. "Everyone on line was so enthused about Obama, and they were talking about how there was a place we could volunteer, so I asked where it was, and here I am," she says, flipping her long, dark hair over her shoulder. Anderson has returned nearly daily to the tiny Cottonwood office, rented four months ago by volunteers pooling their resources.

If the Republican nominee were not John McCain, Democrats would have long ago started making a big play for Arizona, which, like its Western neighbors, has been tilting Democratic. Obama is ahead in Nevada by 6.2 percentage points, in New Mexico by 7.3 and in Colorado by 5.5. Yet after trailing by as much as 20 points this summer, Obama now finds himself down in McCain's home state by just 3.5 points — an average of Arizona polls that show Obama down as little as 1 point or as much as 5. Which is why the Obama campaign announced late last week that it would buy advertising in the Grand Canyon State in a late bid to win Arizona's 10 electoral votes. It is "a very, very close race," Obama campaign manager David Plouffe told reporters in a conference call on Friday.

There are many observers who don't buy Plouffe's spin. They view the move into McCain's home turf as simply a tactical way to bait him to spend precious time and resources in the last few days, all the while boosting the aura of inevitability around Obama. And the Democratic nominee can certainly afford it. But Arizona Democrats insist they truly do have a legitimate shot at winning here. "Obama has taken us up to the 30-yard line. Now it's our job to get the field goal," says Maria Weeg, executive director of the Arizona Democratic Party. Democratic volunteers have been activated by the thousands, many returning from Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico. The party has orchestrated hundreds of thousands of calls and tens of thousands of door knocks during the last four days of the election.

(See pictures of John McCain's final push on the campaign trail.)

(See pictures of voting machines.)

If their downtown offices in Phoenix are any clue, Democrats are certainly outworking their GOP counterparts. I visited the Democratic headquarters Sunday evening and found four dozen or so volunteers busily making calls inside; a few were even outside on their cell phones for lack of space. The Republican headquarters, by contrast, was empty and locked.

The Dems' volunteer office in Cottonwood is an example of how far grass-roots Democrats have come, virtually on their own. McCain likes to say that his ranch is in Sedona, a liberal bastion that sent an Obama delegate to the Democratic National Convention and will more than likely go for Obama on Election Day. But his homestead is actually in a little town 8 miles from Sedona called Cornville, in Yavapai County. Until recently, it was hard to imagine Yavapai, an old blue collar farming and mill town that used to supply the nearby copper mines, ever voting for a Democrat. The county went 59% for Bush in 2000 and 61% for him in 2004. But the demographics of the county — much like Arizona's and the Southwest's as a whole — are shifting.

The beautiful setting — this is where the famous Red Rock canyons meet the Verde Valley — and cheaper real estate in proximity to the resort area of Sedona have drawn developers. The area, a 90-min. drive from Phoenix, has become an exurban magnate and a retirement destination for folks like Anderson, who retired here from Colorado eight years ago. With construction now at a virtual standstill, the county — much like Phoenix — has been one of the areas worst hit by the economic crisis and housing bust. Last year, Prescott, the largest town in Yavapai, elected its first Democratic mayor ever. Governor Janet Napolitano, a Democrat, lost Yavapai by 5,000 votes when she was first elected in 2000 but won it by 10,500 in 2006. And the area's congressional seat — being vacated by Republican Rick Renzi, who is under indictment for extortion, money-laundering and wire fraud (charges he has denied) — is most likely going to be picked up by a Democrat.

If Dems can win that seat and successfully defend two others, they will hold a majority — five of the state's eight members of the House — of the delegation for the first time since 1966. "Democrats have been mobilizing in ways unseen before in the state," says Fred Solop, chair of the political-science department at Northern Arizona University. "They have a shot at capturing the state house for the first time since 1966." Analysts say they also have a shot at taking back the state senate, which they haven't controlled since 1992.

Republican National Committee spokesman Danny Diaz scoffs at the idea that McCain could ever lose Arizona, calling it "unreasonable, irrational and fanciful." McCain won re-election in 2004 with nearly 77% of the vote, and President Bush expanded his own win in Arizona from 51% in 2000 to 55% in 2004. Obama is "entitled to waste resources" in Arizona, Diaz says, but "there's virtually no chance of him carrying the state."

(See pictures of John McCain's final push on the campaign trail.)

(See pictures of voting machines.)

However, Democrats argue that McCain is a "national" Senator who has spent more time in New Hampshire than in Arizona these past 18 months. In theoretical matchups for McCain's 2010 Senate re-election, he trails Napolitano by double digits. "McCain won his own primary by less than 50% here," says Weeg. "Half of the registered voters in Arizona have seen John McCain's name on the ballot once or never — that is how much the state has changed."

Part of McCain's weakness is with the Latino vote — the same demographic outraged by the Republicans' anti-immigration push over the past few years, which has helped propel Obama in neighboring New Mexico, Nevada and Colorado. While McCain has long had a reputation as a moderate on immigration, during the primary season he distanced himself from the 2006 bill he had co-sponsored that offered a path to citizenship. That has not exactly endeared him to the 1.8 million Latinos living in Arizona, who make up 4% of the U.S. Latino population. The Pew Center estimates that there are 677,525 eligible Latino voters, the majority of them under age 30, accounting for 17% of voters in the Grand Canyon State. "The Hispanic vote has been challenging," Diaz concedes. "Some of that can be directly attributed to the debate on immigration, but keep in mind that Senator McCain, especially in his home state, is well known and is trusted and has stood up for all of his constituents, including Hispanics, time and time again."

Though it has aired no advertising in Arizona, the GOP is clearly nervous. A round of robocalls was launched last week, falsely calling Obama a terrorist and deceptively warning targeted seniors that, if elected, he'd halt their Medicare and Social Security payments. McCain, who is holding his victory rally in Phoenix, is expected to return home Monday and deliver a rally in none other than Prescott, speaking on the steps of the Yavapai County Courthouse, where Barry Goldwater launched his senatorial and presidential campaigns.

Eight years ago, the Verde Valley Democratic Party consisted of three guys who registered with the state party but for years struggled to get a quorum. The group now has hundreds of members and has helped to register thousands of voters this cycle. While there's little chance of Obama carrying Yavapai County, the group hopes it can pull off a good enough showing that, when added to what Dems are hoping will be record turnout in big urban areas, especially in Pima County, the state might swing to Obama. "Then, I'd go out and buy a bigger sign," says Michael Cosentino, one of the three founders of the Verde Valley Democratic organization, "and put it up so that every time McCain comes home and drives by, he can't miss us."

(See pictures of John McCain's final push on the campaign trail.)

(See pictures of voting machines.)