Thursday, Feb. 04, 2010

How the Democrats Could Lose the Senate

By Jay Newton-Small / Washington

Most of the Democratic fretting thus far in the election season — and with nine months to go, it's still early on — has been focused on potentially losing their 39-seat majority in the House. After all, Democrats control the Senate, where incumbency rules, by a comfortable 10 votes, and only 37 seats are up for grabs this year. However, recent retirements, worrisome poll numbers for several incumbents and the entrance of some strong GOP challengers have prompted a wave of concern for Senate Dems. While still unlikely, if a perfect political storm were to occur, there is a chance that Democrats could lose the Senate. Here's what would need to happen: (See pictures of 60 years of election-night drama.)

Open seats likely to switch: At least two seats are all but write-offs for Democrats: North Dakota and Delaware. Delaware Attorney General Beau Biden's decision not to run for his father's old job means Dems have lost their best hope at keeping the seat from the popular, eight-term moderate Republican Congressman Mike Castle. And Byron Dorgan's retirement opens up a blue seat in a red state in a year that's trending red. Dems had no better candidate than the three-term Dorgan, who felt that even he couldn't win in this climate. "North Dakota is pretty much gone, and Delaware has become very difficult," says Jennifer Duffy, Senate editor at the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, which tracks congressional races. "This gets Republicans to 43."

Vulnerable swing-state Democratic incumbents: Senate majority leader Harry Reid leads the list of vulnerable incumbents. The Nevada Democrat trails by double digits in theoretical matchups with not one but two would-be GOP challengers — a former Miss America runner-up and the son of a legendary but scandal-plagued college basketball coach, which gives you an idea of how shallow the Nevada GOP bench is and how much trouble Reid is in. Despite the millions of dollars he has already spent on TV and radio ads promoting all he's done for the Silver State, his approval ratings have hovered near the 30% mark. As a mark of how worried Dems are, when asked repeatedly to comment about potential Democratic losses, Eric Schultz, a spokesman for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, didn't return the e-mails.

Recent polls must have Arkansas Democrat Blanche Lincoln blanching; three surveys in the past two weeks have shown her losing by double digits to four different candidates. Making things worse, this week Representative John Boozman (brother of Faye, whom Lincoln narrowly defeated to win the seat in 1998) announced that he plans to challenge the recently named Agriculture Committee chairman, presenting her with the toughest competition yet in her bid for a third term.

The races for President Obama's old Senate seat in Illinois and that of Energy Secretary Ken Salazar in Colorado also have Democrats worried. In Illinois, the GOP has found a strong candidate in four-term Congressman Mark Kirk, a moderate. Kirk will square off with state treasurer Alexis Giannoulias, a banking heir whom Republicans have wasted no time portraying as part of the state's corrupt political culture. Given Illinois voters' disgust over the recent impeachment of Governor Rod Blagojevich, painting Giannoulias in this light could seal his fate. Before Giannoulias was even certified as the Democratic nominee, Republicans were running television ads comparing him to Tony Soprano, hinting heavily that Giannoulias is mired in ethics probes — allegations he has denied. In Colorado, Michael Bennet, appointed to fill Salazar's seat, has been struggling to build name recognition and gain traction with voters. The former superintendent of Denver public schools must overcome a primary challenge from former Colorado house speaker Andrew Romanoff before he takes on the likely GOP nominee, Lieut. Governor Jane Norton. (See the screwups of Campaign '08.)

Arlen Specter did himself no favors when he switched parties last year. He did so on the expectation that a moderate Republican couldn't win Pennsylvania (or at least the Republican primary), since Obama won the state in 2008 with 55% of the vote. The five-term veteran may well be wishing he hadn't bolted, since he would probably have an easier time keeping his seat if he'd stayed a Republican. Specter is facing a strong primary challenge from Representative Joe Sestak, a former Navy admiral; both men trailed former Club for Growth front man Pat Toomey in a recent Franklin & Marshall poll.

This week also brought bad news for Indiana's Evan Bayh, with former Senator Dan Coats' announcement that he might run for Bayh's seat. Coats held that seat for a decade before Bayh. There has been a lot of angst in recent months over the speculation that Bayh, a former governor and moderate two-term Senator, might retire — a move that would make his seat infinitely more difficult to defend. "If it wasn't this close, Coats wouldn't have decided to run," says Charlie Cook, editor of the Cook Political Report. "For the first time, there's now a mathematic possibility — however unlikely — that the Republicans could take back the Senate."

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Getting to 10: Even if they can win all these contests, Republicans would still need to find two more seats in order to gain back the majority. But if the election ends up of becoming a real wave year — as the last two cycles have been for Democrats — it's possible to imagine even the bluest states flipping. Look no further than the upset in Massachusetts last month for evidence as to why Senators from even the most progressive states, such as New York, California, Wisconsin and Washington, are worried. "Republicans still need a few things to break our way, but clearly there is a path forward that was previously unimaginable at the start of this election cycle," says Brian Walsh, a spokesman for the National Republican Senatorial Committee. "There's still a long way to go until November, so we're taking nothing for granted, but particularly after our victory in Massachusetts, there is a lot of energy and enthusiasm, which is putting more states in play and helping with fundraising across the board."

In California, Senator Barbara Boxer is facing one of the toughest re-elections of her career. Polls show her comfortably leading her likely opponent, self-funding millionaire Carly Fiorina, former CEO of Hewlett-Packard. But Boxer's negatives are 10 points higher than they were during her last campaign — a troubling sign that Dems are watching closely.

In New York, Kirsten Gillibrand, a former Congresswoman from upstate New York who was appointed to fill Hillary Clinton's seat, is facing a potential primary challenge from former Tennessee Congressman Harold Ford. But she'll really be in trouble if former New York governor George Pataki, a Republican, decides to run: two hypothetical matchups last month showed Pataki beating Gillibrand by as much as 14 percentage points.

Republicans have yet to find strong challengers for Senators Patty Murray of Washington and Wisconsin's Russ Feingold, though they still have plenty of time. "Clearly, the environment for Democrats continues to deteriorate, which might make recruiting in these states easier," says Duffy of the Cook Political Report. And they'd only need to win two of these four seats in order to get to 10.

GOP incumbents: The Republicans' lift is made heavier by their own vulnerabilities. They have four open seats to defend, which the Cook Political Report rates as toss-ups, including Kentucky, Missouri, New Hampshire and Ohio. Plus, Louisiana's David Vitter is up for his first re-election since his admission that he was a repeat client of the so-called D.C. Madam. And some of the establishment GOP candidates, such as former state attorney general Kelly Ayotte in New Hampshire and Kentucky secretary of state Trey Grayson, face tough primary challenges.

If at first you don't succeed ... The Republicans may well have an uphill battle in regaining control of the Senate. But the mere fact that the Dems are having to defend an increasingly large number of seats means they will be forced to spend more money — money that could otherwise be going to vulnerable House members (and that chamber is looking seriously endangered for Dems). A narrower majority would force Dems to reach out to moderate Republicans to pass legislation. And starting in 2012, the large Democratic freshmen classes of 2006 and '08 start coming up for re-election. "I don't see the majority in jeopardy at this stage, but they're a lot closer than where I thought they'd be this cycle," says Nathan Gonzales, an editor at the Rothenberg Political Report, which also tracks congressional races. "Plus, they start on the defensive in 2012 because of the number of Democratic seats that are in play."

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