Wednesday, Feb. 07, 2001

"If Something Happens to the President..."

By JASON TEDJASUKMANA Jakarta

Indonesia's Defense Minister Mohamad Mahfud Mahmudin has been one of the more controversial members of President Abdurrahman Wahid's cabinet since being plucked from obscurity last September. The former constitutional law professor has been an outspoken critic of perceived interference in domestic affairs by US Ambassador Robert Gelbard, and recently warned of a possible military takeover in the present climate of political uncertainly. Mahfud spoke to reporter Jason Tedjasukmana on Feb. 4 in his official residence in Jakarta. Excerpts:

TIME: Your recent statement that bickering among political leaders could result in the military taking over caused quite a stir. The military has since denied that could happen.
Mahfud: The military was not happy with the statement but I directed the statement at the President so he would realize that the not everyone in the military was happy with the President mentioning the option of a state of emergency. I wanted to signal to the President not to impose an emergency state because it wouldn't have full military support and without their support it would be difficult. But for the most part it was just a political statement.

TIME: Why would the President be considering the option of declaring a state of emergency. Is he that desperate?
Mahfud: I don't know for sure but we ministers have rejected that option and have told him that any such decree would be a setback for democracy. If it had to be imposed it would only be appropriate in separatist-minded areas like Aceh and Irian but not nationally. The President gets a lot of information from informal sources... but without much in-depth analysis. The President then thinks he can confidently make certain decisions when the situation on the ground is really different.

TIME: If such an emergency were declared would you support it?
Mahfud: I would disagree because this would give the military a chance to enter the political arena. The military has taken a back seat to the President because of pressure from the masses, but declaring a state of emergency would leave the military little choice if they have to safeguard the nation and prevent conflict among the masses.

TIME: In the run-up to last week's parliamentary session, the protests were large but they were relatively peaceful. What is your take on the security situation now and do you expect more demonstrations?
Mahfud: We are trying to cut down the tension of the masses that have been sponsored by certain powers. This applies to both those pro and anti-Gus Dur (Wahid's nickname). Fortunately, (protests) can generally be predicted by our security forces, and that is why there weren't any victims last week.

TIME: Do you think Gus Dur has any support left in the country?
Mahfud: We need to give him a chance to prepare his reponse so the people can hear his side of the story.

TIME: Do you think the President is now going to be more conciliatory or confrontational?
Mahfud: The President will stick to his belief that he hasn't done anything wrong. However, I have seen a change in his behavior in that he is paying more attention to his cabinet. Before it was difficult for us to give advice, but now he's listening. Perhaps he now realizes that his informal sources of information may not have been delivering the most accurate information.

TIME: How about his relationship with the Vice President. Will this also improve?
Mahfud: We have to keep in mind that the Gus Dur-Megawati (Sukarnoputri) relationship is still good on a personal level. They are like brother and sister. But in terms of their offices, the Vice President is now acting more firmly.

TIME: Can Gus Dur accept the fact that this Vice President may become stronger or more important than him?
Mahfud: Politically he may have no choice but to accept it. Support from (Megawati's) PDIP is critical not only in terms of their majority in the House of Representatives but also in terms of its followers. Golkar (the political party of former president Suharto) is also dependent on PDIP because it knows it doesn't have enough seats to act alone. If Golkar brings down the President without PDIP's support it will look like a coup of the past regime.

TIME: Can Gus Dur count on support from his cabinet?
Mahfud: The cabinet is intact and still functioning fine. We are working for the government and not trying to be influenced by the political situation.

TIME: Is it possible that the military is lining up behind Megawati?
Mahfud: It's possible in the sense that they have to prepare alternatives if something happens to the President. However, what is important is that they are prepared to help ensure a smooth and peaceful transition of power if and when that happens.