MELT AWAY FUTURE
The ice caps are shrinking, some
fish are vanishing and a butterfly is moving north fast. Global
warming is here all right, but we haven't seen anything yet
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BY DICK THOMPSON
Benjamin Santer knows what it's like to stand in the line of fire. In 1995 the American atmospheric scientist headed a United Nations review of one of the most controversial theories ever to emerge from the halls of science: the bold contention that carbon dioxide and other so-called greenhouse gases produced in huge quantities by industrial societies are inexorably warming the planet. Was this just some figment of a far-fetched computer model or a real threat that could spell disaster for all life on earth during the next century?
When Santer's multinational panel of scientists, a subcommittee assigned to review the technical literature, released its findings, the conclusion was unequivocal: "The balance of evidence suggests that there is a discernible human influence on global climate." The obscure researcher quickly became a prime target for officials of the oil industry, the auto industry and just about every other industry that depends on the burning of fossil fuels. He was accused of putting policymaking ahead of fact-finding, of unduly scaring the public before all the evidence was in.
But Santer and his colleagues wouldn't back down, and now it's their critics who are running for cover. Few scientists would downplay the greenhouse effect today, and even the chief executive of British Petroleum has admitted that it would be "unwise and potentially dangerous to ignore" the threat of global warming. Santer himself sounds more confident than ever. "The science that has emerged since our report was published has strengthened our conclusions," he said from his office at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in California. "Everything we know about the climate system tells us that the climate is going to change."
Up to a point, the buildup of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is benign--even essential--to life. When sunlight bounces off the earth, some of the resulting heat is trapped by carbon dioxide and other gases that envelop the planet, just as a greenhouse retains warmth that allows its plants to survive. Without any greenhouse effect, earth would be 33C cooler than it is now.
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