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We will have to curb production of plastics and other petroleum-based materials. One promising idea is a carbohydrate economy--replacing petrochemicals with biologically derived materials that could be used for everything from plastic kitchen wrap to automobile bodies. David Morris of the Institute for Local Self-Reliance in the U.S. believes that a fraction of the millions of tons of cornstalks, rice straw and other agricultural waste produced each year could substitute for most plastics. Among the most difficult jobs will be feeding more than 8 billion people in the water-short world of the next century. Biotechnology certainly has a role to play in raising grain yields and making crops less demanding of water and less vulnerable to pests. But a shift in diets may also be needed. More than a third of the world's grain goes to feed animals that in turn produce meat, eggs and dairy products. This gives humans a protein- and fat-rich diet, but the conversion process is inefficient. If the world's affluent were to consume less meat--living a little lower on the food chain--it would be easier to provide a healthy diet for all. The trick will be to develop tasty and healthy vegetable products, some of which may be nearly indistinguishable from meat. Another essential element of a sustainable society is a better balance between cities and the countryside. New land-use policies are needed to slow the spread of urban areas, which pave over thousands of square kilometers of farmland and wild areas each year. Inevitably cities will be better off if they are less sprawling, with improved public transportation and convenient footpaths. For a glimpse of the future, look at Curitiba, Brazil, where a compact urban design and one of the world's best bus systems allow easy travel without cars. And well-planned government programs have helped Curitiba reduce homelessness, infant mortality and violence to levels well below those in other Brazilian cities. The future also beckons in Copenhagen, where free public bicycles and 300 km of bikeways enable nonmotorists to get around. Information technology can help people do their jobs while traveling less and using fewer materials. Entrepreneurs in developing countries are providing satellite television and cellular phone service to villages without stringing millions of kilometers of copper wires or cutting thousands of trees into poles. Teleconferencing enables businesses to bring employees on distant continents together without consuming a drop of jet fuel. In the future more and more people are likely to work at home, using a modem to communicate with bosses. |