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None of the catastrophes described above unfolded as predicted. Much of the developed world banned ddt, though countries like China that continued to use the compound did suffer the silent spring Carson foresaw. The burning of fossil fuels has not depleted oxygen in the atmosphere, but the vast release of heat-trapping gases has raised the specter of climate chaos. The so-called Green Revolution averted the famines Ehrlich predicted, but India has nearly doubled its population since 1972 and faces the future with vastly diminished forests, less arable land and hundreds of millions of people still living in abject poverty. Today the pulse of environmental awareness surges around the globe, but its progress is ponderous. Environment is relatively new to the pantheon of policy issues, and governments are still confused about how ecology relates to issues of trade, security, economic development and other traditional matters of state. Moreover, making nations pay attention to environment has been like trying to get kids to eat spinach. This is because the benefits of environmental degradation are usually as obvious as cold cash. The costs, on the other hand, are often camouflaged, spread through society and left for future generations to worry about. The typical rhythm of environmental degradation has been a period of rampant exploitation of natural resources followed by growing awareness of the consequences and, finally, belated efforts to halt the decline. John Perlin, author of A Forest Journey, notes that 4,000 years ago the Babylonian ruler Hammurabi instituted the death penalty for illegal tree-cutting after wood shortages became so acute that people would take doors with them when they moved. The record of history also makes clear that action often comes too late. By the time Hammurabi took his stern stance, deforestation was already destroying vital agricultural watersheds and depriving Babylon of wood needed for chariots and ships. |