Will We Ever Log Off?
Eating, playing racquetball, brushing our teeth--surely we
won't be doing everything online in the future? Don't be too
sure
By ROBERT WRIGHT
During the past two years, the amount of time the average
Internet user spends online each week has risen from 4.4 hours
to 7.6 hours. If that annual growth rate, 31.5%, holds up, then
in 2025 the average Internet user will spend 590 hours online
per day!
O.K., so extrapolation has its limits as a predictive tool.
Still, you have to wonder. As cyberspace absorbs more and more
of our work, play, shopping and socializing, where will it all
end? What activities will still be off-line in 2025?
A few candidates spring to mind. Brushing your teeth. Eating.
Playing tennis. Right? Not so fast. Even some of these seemingly
solid barriers to the Internet's encroachment are shaky. A
quarter-century from now, almost everything will in principle be
doable online, and convenience will often argue for doing it
there.
Bear in mind, for starters, that in 2025 the average American
will have, as they say in technical circles, bandwidth out the
wazoo. You won't just be able to monitor your child's day care
by webcam (a service already offered by more than 100 day-care
centers). You'll be able to monitor it in high-definition 3-D
format, providing valuable perspective during slo-mo replays of
block-throwing incidents.
And this is only the beginning. Just ask Jaron Lanier, who
coined the term virtual reality. Lanier is chief scientist for
the "tele-immersion" project, part of the federally subsidized
research program known as Internet2, which explores the upshot
of massive bandwidth and computing power.
The standard virtual-reality experience, you may recall,
involves donning a head-mounted display or special glasses--or,
in principle, contact lenses--and thus entering a
computer-generated fantasy world. As you turn your head or walk
around, the computer adjusts your perspective accordingly.
Tele-immersion is to videoconferencing as virtual reality is to
Pac-Man. If it works, it will give you the visual experience of
being in the same room with a person who is actually in another
city.
So what's the killer app for tele-immersion? "It's not so much a
matter of particular applications," says Lanier. "It will just
become part of life. It will be used by teenage girls to gossip,
by business people to cut deals, by doctors to consult." And
presumably by people who want to do long-distance lunch. Of
course, there won't be any point in saying "Pass the squash,"
but otherwise it will be a normal mealtime conversation. Eating
online.
Speaking of squash, playing racquet sports at long distance is
in principle simple. If you've got a squash-court-size space to
run around in, you can play with your college buddy, wherever he
or she may be. (And no more annoying collisions with opponent,
walls or ball, since all three will be illusions.) In fact,
using standard virtual-reality technology, people have already
played tennis remotely, Lanier says. But each looked to the
other like a cartoon character--an "avatar." Tele-immersion will
let you see the agony of defeat on the face of your vanquished
foe. A big advance.
Mushrooming bandwidth and computing power aren't the only things
drawing us deeper into cyberspace. Global-positioning satellites
are turning driving a car into an intermittently online
experience. And the high-resolution satellite images that became
commercially available last year will move the earthiest of
endeavors into cyberspace. Sitting at a desk will soon be the
fastest way for farmers to inspect their crops for signs of
blight.
Obviously, some pastimes lose something when performed online.
(No, I'm not going to talk about sex.) Consider hiking. True,
you could don your head-mounted display and get on your
treadmill while a friend did the same in another city. If you
wanted a whiff of pine or cedar, you could crank up the
computer-controlled aroma synthesizer that the company
DigiScents has said it will market. Not too tempting, right?
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