The conflict's conclusion will be more memorable for the turmoil that follows. A couple decades down the road, you may even find yourself musing, "Oh, for the good old days of straightforward conflicts between Arabs and Israelis. Like the cold war—how simple it was back then."

The comparison is appropriate, for the aftermath of the Arab-Israeli dispute will mirror the aftermath of the superpower rivalry, writ small. Once again the dangers will shift from big bloody wars between states or their surrogates to a bunch of smaller but messier and more persistent conflicts within countries. But don't be fooled. The stakes will be just as high over the next quarter-century as they were in the last, for the new disorder won't dissipate until the political map of the Middle East has been redrawn.

Here's how peace will spark upheaval: Middle Eastern governments will no longer be able to justify huge military expenditures (often made to secure their own rule) or defer public demands for more freedoms and better living conditions by invoking border defense, territorial mandates, nationalism or cultural honor. So they'll spend the next quarter-century confronting—or being confronted by—the forces already changing the rest of the world.

No capital will be exempt, from the world's oldest in Damascus to its newest in Palestine, from dusty Riyadh to scenic Rabat, from war-weary Beirut and Baghdad to sleepy Muscat and Manama, from landlocked Amman to seafront Algiers. Oh, and Jerusalem too. Syria, Libya and Iraq will witness the deepest transformations for the simple reason that their eccentric ideologies are the most bankrupt—and the most out of synch with their people. Their institutions are corrupt. And their economies are moribund.

Countries like Egypt and Algeria in the middle of the political spectrum are most vulnerable short term. Both took tepid steps toward democracy in open, multiparty elections in the 1980s, then marched backward in the 1990s. Both began the 21st century facing unprecedented social pressures from soaring populations they can't feed, educate, employ or house. Egypt, home to 67 million people (almost half the entire Arab world), produces an additional 1 million mouths to feed every eight months. In both countries, leaders have stalled on reforms. The result has been a decade of violence. More is to come. Despite Western allies, the world's last bloc of true monarchies—Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the little gulf sheikdoms, Morocco and Jordan—isn't off the hook either. Monarchy went out of political fashion in the 20th century. Most Arab dynasts have held on thanks to oil, isolation or tribal and family loyalties. But petrodollars also educated a generation now eager to connect with a globalizing world.

Then toss in technology. Courtesy of the borderless Internet, parties banned by Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Libya and Tunisia have websites and use e-mail for secret communications. Satellite receivers, nicknamed "couscous dishes" because they've become a household necessity, have changed Morocco's skyline—and access to ideas in the outside world. Al-Jazeera, a television station based in Qatar that is available throughout the Arab world, airs news—real news—and political debates as heated as anything on CNN's Crossfire.

But the next quarter-century will be so unsettling because it will require change more profound than anything witnessed during the overhaul of Eastern Europe's regimes or Latin America's military dictatorships. The Arabs will have to find a way to cross the threshold between tradition and modernity; they will have to find a formula that is true to both historic religious cultures and 21st century pluralism. In the West, it was the Christian Reformation that opened the way for the Age of Enlightenment and the introduction of modern liberal democracy based on individual rights. In the Middle East, it would amount to nothing less than an Islamic Reformation. And it's already well under way.

MORE >>

PAGE  1  |  2