Croatia 2, Italy 1: Hubris Strikes Again

How

is any self-respecting football expert expected to do his job is the best teams in the world won't do theirs? You spend months tracking the form of individual players, analyzing the performance of teams, watching qualifying games, friendlies and practice sessions. You pore over all manner of statistics, factor in heat and humidity, injuries and fatigue. Then, and only then, do you stick your neck out and pick your likely semifinalists. But all that research goes down the tubes when a team of players — highly trained, in full command of their powers — decides that it is too damn good for the opposition, and that victory is a foregone conclusion.

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Hubris, humbler of France, Portugal and Argentina, completed the quartet of likely Final Four teams by handing the arrogant Italians an unexpected defeat at the hands of Croatia in Ibaraki. Okay, let's be fair: the Balkan boys raised themselved off the floor after a supine performance against Mexico, and came out swinging against the Azurri. The Croatians played with a verve and inventiveness and a sense of purpose reminiscent of their 1998 fairytale run to the semis. But in the end, it was the Italians who threw the game away.

It's almost as if they used the first half to practice for the letdown of the second. After an opening 20 minutes of near-total domination, during which Francisco Totti showed off the full range of his beguiling skills, the Italians inexplicably sat back and invited the Croatians to attack. This they did, taking 7 shots at goal, to just three by Italy. Buffon didn't have to make any spectacular saves, to be sure, but the Croatians were given time and space to find their range. This would come home to roost in the second half.

After some ear-bending from coach Trapattoni, the Italians came out of the break with a sense of determination: this paid off in quick time, with Doni setting up Vieri to head home in the 55th minute. But then, just as in the first period, the Italians pulled back and let the Croatians play. Big mistake.

Allowed the freedom of the midfield, Milan Rapaic, Davor Vugrinec and Robert Jarni began to call every shot; and up front, Alen Boksic and Niko Kovac began to find gaps in the fabled Azurri wall. It had to happen: in a two minute period halfway into the second period, sub Ivica Olic and the superb Rapaic scored.

The Italians never recovered from the shock of it all. Trapattoni brought on Pippo Inzaghi to try and unlock the red-and-white defence, but not even his subtle runs could bring Italy back from the brink. In the end, Totti and Co. were left ruing the two occasions when they had the ball in the net, just to be called off-side. But it was their own fault: they should never have put themselves in a situation when they needed an equilizer.

So Italy go into their final game needing to beat Mexico, who defeated Ecuador 2-1 Sunday night. The Ecuadorians will meet Croatia, who should win comfortably. Should the Italians win, too, that would leave three teams in the group with six points apiece, with goal difference deciding which two go into the next round. But there I go, sticking my neck out