Who'll Win the Tonys?

TIME's Richard Zoglin gives his appraisal of all the nominees for the four top awards and gauges their chances on this Sunday's awards show as Broadway honors its best

Grey Gardens

Mary Louise Wilson (left) and Christine Ebersole in Grey Gardens.

Joan Marcus
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The raves have been unanimous for star Christine Ebersole and her spectacular dual performance — as the older (in flashbacks) and younger of two eccentric cousins of Jacqueline Kennedy Onassis, who were discovered living in squalor in East Hampton, N.Y. in the 1970s and chronicled in a famous Maysles Brothers documentary. But this rich and affecting musical is more than just a star vehicle, well deserving of its 10 nominations. Unfortunately, it will have a tough awards night because of Spring Awakening.

Tony Outlook: Ebersole is a likely winner for Best Actress; otherwise, the show will probably be a worthy also-ran for most of the evening.

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