Louisiana

Senator Mary Landrieu's last two opponents were "the worst two candidates the GOP has run, ever," Cook said. This time around she's not so lucky. State Treasurer John Kennedy switched parties in August to run against her — a move that would be a liability in most states but is pretty much par for the course in the Bayou. He's up for reelection this year (for treasurer) and has raised $2 million to defend his seat. While he can't transfer that into a Senate campaign account, he can spend it making sure every voter in Louisiana knows who he is. Kennedy very nearly beat Republican David Vitter for his Senate seat in 2004; in a year that favored Republicans (Bush won Louisiana with 57 % of the vote) Vitter just barely squeaked in with 51%. Vitter, in fact, played a big part in convincing Kennedy to switch parties. And with so many blacks displaced, "the state's gotten more Republican since Katrina." Cook said. "Landrieu's become a better candidate but the climate's worse and the opponent is tough this time."

— Jay Newton-Small/Washington

Next: Minnesota >>

• 6 of 10
• 
•