Nebraska

As with New Mexico, this seat is only competitive for the Democrats if they get the right candidate. In this case it's former Nebraska Senator Bob Kerrey, who served Nebraskans as their (incredibly popular) senator from 1989 to 2001. Kerrey, who moved to New York to become dean of the New School when he left office, is weighing a run, though he has yet to move back to Nebraska. On the Republican side Bush's Agriculture secretary Mike Johanns, a former Nebraska governor, left the cabinet this summer in order to run for the seat being vacated by retiring Senator Chuck Hagel, a fellow Republican. He could face, though, an expensive primary challenge from Attorney General Jon Bruning. "If Kerrey does run it's probably 50-50 for the Democrats," Cook said. "If he doesn't run probably it's 10% for the Democrats."

— Jay Newton-Small/Washington

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