Top Ten '08 Senate Races to Watch

Senator Gordon Smith is a "smart guy running a good campaign," Cook said. By June 30, Smith had already raised more than $3.5 million, and he boasts a consistently moderate record: he was the author of the 2002 hate-crimes legislation and supports Medicaid funding for some abortions. "But it's not a great state for the GOP," Cook said. Bush lost the somewhat progressive state of Oregon with 48% of the vote in 2004 and Democrats have found a solid challenger in Oregon House Speaker Jeff Merkley, a former Portland director of Habitat for Humanity. Merkley, who as speaker authored a bill to mandate that Oregon generate 25 percent of its electricity from renewable sources, has consolidated Dem support early, securing the endorsements of the governor and Portland mayor. "Merkley might be a decent candidate, but it's a longer shot than some of the other races," Cook said.

— Jay Newton-Small/Washington