Independent Voters

The pivotal question is who politically unaligned voters (who make up 44% of all those registered in New Hampshire) will support this year. In 2000, more than 60% of them cast their votes for McCain, giving him an 18-point landslide over Bush. They might be tempted to back the Arizona Senator again. But he's undergone some transformations since then — even if his campaign is now back on its old Straight Talk track — while Barack Obama has come onto the political scene with a message tailored to appeal across party lines. As in Iowa, independent voters may flock to his side, an outcome that Mitt Romney will be rooting for.