The Morning Line on Oscar

The Academy Awards nominations are out. TIME's Richard Corliss picks the likely winners, his own favorites and the biggest snubs

Best Actress

Marion Cotillard in La Vie en Rose, Julie Christie in Away from Her, and Keira Knightey in Atonement

Picturehouse; Capri Films; Focus Features
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Likely Winner: Marion Cotillard, La Vie en Rose
She's bucking Oscar tradition: only Sophia Loren (Two Women, 1961) has won Best Actress for a performance in a foreign language. But Cotillard could still take it. Squeezing herself into the petite frame of Edith Piaf, Cotillard gives a big, bold performance that highlights all the striving, pathos and tragedy of the Little Sparrow's life.

Corliss Pick: Julie Christie, Away from Her
Lots of reasons she won't win. As a woman with Alzheimer's, she's in a high-minded disease-of-the-week movie. Even though she's going mad, she doesn't have a mad scene. And the film is really about her husband (Gordon Pinsent). But Christie lends this difficult part a toughness, poignancy and her own undimmed glamour.

Robbed: Keira Knightley, Atonement
We know the argument against her: the dress does all the acting. But the sweet willfulness Knightley shows as the upper-crust Circe, and then her little-girl hurt at being betrayed, make this a performance worth rewarding. Plus, she knows how to use her gorgeousness; isn't that an important part of movie acting?

Other nominees include Cate Blanchett (Elizabeth: The Golden Age) and Laura Linney (The Savages).

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