Congressional Races to Watch '08

(3 of 3)

While Washington, D.C.-based election analysts like the Rothenberg Report and Cook Political Report call the Diaz-Balart races toss-ups, polls show Ros-Lehtinen, 46, with a lead ample enough to keep her seat in the GOP fold. Still, although her district remains two-thirds Latino, it is less than 30% Cuban today—and non-Cubans like her Colombian-American Democratic challenger, businesswoman Annette Taddeo, 41, are gaining political clout.

That trend looks likely to continue in Miami-Dade County, where new Democratic voter registration is significantly outpacing that of Republicans. Many Miami Cubans—including the Diaz-Balart brothers, who are the nephews of Fidel Castro's first wife—were once Democrats before joining the GOP during the more ardently anti-communist Reagan decade of the 1980s. If either Martinez, Garcia or both pull off upsets next month, it will be sweet for Democratic Cuban-Americans who held out all these years. But it may not be sweet enough to help Miami overcome the sour aftertaste of these congressional campaigns.

(See Pictures of the Week here.

(See the Top Races to Watch '08.)