TIME's Oscar Guide

The New York Film Critics Circle and the National Board of Review said Brolin was the best supporting actor of the year. Yet the argument could be made — here, for example — that Brolin isn't the best supporting actor in Milk. He was fine impersonating Supervisor Dan White, the working-class Catholic nut case who shot and killed Harvey Milk. We'd still have picked any of the three actors who played Milk's lovers: James Franco, Emile Hirsch and Diego Luna. In the matter of Oscars, though, the choice of Milk man doesn't matter. To win Supporting Actor this year, you'll have to be a dead Joker. (Odds of Winning: 10 to 1)