TIME's Oscar Guide

Josh Brolin, Milk

The New York Film Critics Circle and the National Board of Review said Brolin was the best supporting actor of the year. Yet the argument could be made — here, for example — that Brolin isn't the best supporting actor in Milk. He was fine impersonating Supervisor Dan White, the working-class Catholic nut case who shot and killed Harvey Milk. We'd still have picked any of the three actors who played Milk's lovers: James Franco, Emile Hirsch and Diego Luna. In the matter of Oscars, though, the choice of Milk man doesn't matter. To win Supporting Actor this year, you'll have to be a dead Joker. (Odds of Winning: 10 to 1)