Q: What would you have done if Jerry said he was not interested?
STEVE CASE: I guess I would have come at it a different way, because I
think it makes sense. I think I'd try to understand what was going on in his
thinking, because it did strike me as strategically compelling, almost in the
no-brainer category, and as good for Time Warner as I thought it was for AOL.
So I wouldn't have taken a "no, not interested;" I would have somehow or
other figured out a way to get a clearer sense of why it wouldn't be
interesting, because it should be interesting.
When I called Jerry, I said it had to be a merger of equals. I thought he
should be CEO. And we should figure out a way to integrate the management
teams in a way that makes good sense, because there are terrific executives
at both companies.
So I knew the valuation would be an issue, I knew the management would be
an issue, and I tried to pre-empt that. For some reason, if it hadn't gone
anywhere, as I say, I would have been surprised. I would have persevered.
We would have continued to do what we are doing, which was executing a
strategy that was working exceedingly well. We continue to grow all our
brands quite aggressively and we look at other things, whether it be
continued acquisitions in the Internet space, or looking at other media
assets, because there really was no -- there was no close second.
Q: Was there an alternative plan that would maybe help you get on the
cable systems?
CASE: Well, actually that was not a big driver. I felt that that this
was moving in our direction and that I believed that, first of all, the
consumer acceptance of broadband that we predicted two years ago was
building, but it was not taking off like a rocket. @Home had a million or so
subscribers, for example, and it was likely to pick up steam, but would
likely be accelerated when AOL -- particularly AOL and others -- started
marketing and upgrade its existing customers and that we are beginning to
market DSL.
We are looking at some wireless investments, and we've been having
discussions with most of the cable companies. And so, we thought that we
would continue to build our audience. We had 10 million customers the last
couple of years while this broadband debate was happening and they would be
able to upgrade those customers and hopefully give consumers a choice of
options.
And another big step was when AT&T agreed to some principles regarding
open access. The FCC had recently said essentially one way or the other it's
going to be open access. So our sense was that was moving in our direction.
That was not a key driver of this. That was a factor, but not the key factor.
The real factor was we thought these two companies together would really
allow us to do terrific things in terms of changing the way people get
information and how they communicate, how they buy products, and how they
learn things.
And the biggest issue for Time Warner was how to take all these wonderful
brands and the trust that has been built over decades by Time and by Sports
Illustrated and CNN and so forth and make it relevant in this new connected
world, or more relevant to the connected world.
The big challenge for us was not just broadband access but broadband
content. We didn't feel that it was enough simply to provide high-speed
access to the things that people were already doing, although those would be
nice and some people would pay for it. The real breakthrough would be when
we reinvented the service to make it more of a multimedia service. That means
having video assets and audio and things like that, so it was a little bit
more like a TV experience with the personalization and things like that, not
just that the Web pages popped in two seconds instead of 10 seconds.
So that was really the key driver, building this company that was
financially strong, 40 billion in revenue and 10 billion in EBITDA in its
first year in business, with tremendous brands and strong relationships with
consumers, strong relationships with advertisers and a unique ability to
bring these worlds together in a way that not only benefited the companies
but also most of all benefited consumers.
Q: You talked yesterday about continued commitment to open access on
cable. Could you flip that over to the content side and talk about your
thoughts about the brands of Time Warner? Do you see CNN exclusively going
to AOL and Internet space? Do you see Time?
CASE: No, no. Ultimately, the various CEOs ought to make those specific
calls. But my expectation would be continuing to operate a lot of these
different businesses as independent businesses and looking to ways to extend
them by leveraging other capacities in the company, just as you've seen with
CNN and Time Magazine, so there is some cross-promotion integration or
creation of some new shows, things like that.
But you've got to continue to run them independently. I'm very sensitive
to this, and Jerry and I spent a long time talking about how there really is
a journalistic tradition here that is way, way beyond the kind of things we
thought of at AOL. We thought of ourselves more as a packager, not as
journalists per se. We had editors in one sense because they are deciding
what to highlight on a screen, so there is some editorial judgement there,
but the stories themselves are coming from CBS or Reuters or Bloomberg or AP.
And some of the traditions, starting with Henry Luce, about not just church
and state but also serving the public interest as well as the shareholders,
are very important, and they resonated with me.
JERRY LEVIN: The unfortunate thing, in an open access, and this is
leading rhetoric to a great extent, you just get back and look at what does
history teach us about networks. No network can survive if it uses its
captive programming as the way to succeed.
As a matter of fact, the maker of the programming is not going to succeed
unless it's refreshed by serving live audiences. That's really the message.
Q: That's the model here --
LEVIN: That's the model that we've grown up with, and this now applies
in spades in the Internet world because there is so much availability. Now
that doesn't mean that you can't enrich the offering, but we have wrestled
with this issue and kind of wrestled it to the ground over many years because
it's also good business proposition.
CASE: And if you talk to some of the people at AOL, like -- for example,
someone who is building interactive properties, in music, and Digital Cities,
and ICQ. He'll tell you he's frustrated sometimes that the AOL Music Channel
just can't basically point to Spinner and Winamp instead of pointing to a lot
of different things. But this is a separate judgement by the people in charge
of the AOL music channel about what to promote independent of the content
brand for building it.
Of course, there is some desire to encourage synergies, but at the same
time, you need to make sure there are independent decisions, and be one of
the real things I respect about Jerry's leadership at Time Warner and a
similar kind of model we try to put in place, is that you have empowered
entrepreneurial executives here. If people feel like they're just part of
this big centralized company where you can't do anything without 16 other
people agreeing to it, I think that you aren't able to compete on Internet
time.
You've got to have nimbleness. You've got to have empowered executives,
particularly because, otherwise they'll run off an do some get-rich-quick.com
kind of thing. So they have to feel like they're in charge and they have to
feel like they're making a difference, they have to feel like they're
empowered. We've tried to do that within AOL. Time Warner clearly has done
that.
The executives here, Don Logan or Jeff Bewkes or many others, you can go
down the list, are people who don't need the work, could get a lot of other
jobs in a second and probably make more money in some quick IPO kind of
Internet thing. They're here because they feel empowered and they feel that
they're making a difference.
Q: That almost begs the question -- You're saying the greatest strength
at Time Warner is that each division is able to run its own businesses. Then
why more combination?
CASE: Well, it's a balance. I think you have to be able to attract the
right people and run things as independent units, and at the same time on
major key initiatives encourage people to cooperate.
Before Yahoo was even out there, in fact at the time Pathfinder started,
we were trying to buy Yahoo, and it was $2 million for the company because
there were two people in the company and we just bought Webcrawler which had
one person in the company. We paid $1 million for Webcrawler and saw our
valuation, was clearly established.
We called Jerry (Yang), well, two people, $2 million. I think if we said
5 million, I'm sure that we would have gotten the deal. We probably would
have gotten it for 3, but we were stuck at 2.
So Yahoo was nowhere and Pathfinder, somehow it didn't really get the
attention of the company and things just didn't get momentum. That's an
example where we're saying we do need to figure out a way to move, sort of
more of a tectonic shift, how do we make that move? But that's not in my
mind at all inconsistent with this notion of entrepreneur. It's like looking
at governments -- there are things that state governments do and there are
things that federal governments do and there's always a little bit of a
debate. What should happen at the county level versus the state level?
There always is that tension. But there is a logic to why it makes sense to
have these different kinds of approaches and certain things need to have
almost a national crusade. You weren't going to get a man on the moon if
Kentucky and Tennessee were trying to figure out how to make it happen.
Q: Jerry, how successful do you see Time Warner's efforts to be federal
on the Internet? Was it going to work if you hadn't made this deal?
LEVIN: I think it would have gotten mixed results. I was trying to use
traces of my own mind about internal takeover of CNN. To use Mike Milken
terms, you're sitting out there, looking at Time Warner, what would you go
after? Maybe the first thing you'd go after is CNN because it has real
dot-com transferability. And I wrench it out of its current organization,
and I slam Time in there and I make it fly and I don't want to hear anything
about somebody coming in and taking it over. Then thinking about the reality,
I think I probably could have pulled it off, but it would have contaminated
the result. I would have done it -- it wasn't AOL or nothing -- but it wasn't
a very satisfying alternative.
CASE: The flip side is going back to your earlier question. We did
believe -- I believe that in the long run, that owning content or destination
sites or channels or whatever metaphor you want to use is important. We
didn't simply want to be an on-ramp. But all the things that people ended up
eventually going to and bookmarking were things that we didn't have ownership
in.
In the last four or five years we have done some of that with mixed
results. Some of the brands have done quite well and others not so well. We
found the last couple of years we were better buying interesting brands or
strong passionate management teams and then taking them to the next step, ICQ
being a good example; more recently, MapQuest is a good example. That's
opposed to building them from scratch, which we tried to do with
Entertainment Asylum and some things in the sports area.
So if we hadn't done this, although as I said, I believe this was the far
and away best thing to do and I would have kept coming at it and hopefully
eventually prevailed, we would have moved in that direction. The real debate
would be, do you buy a number of web companies coming at this with kind of an
Internet-centric focus, or is there some other quote-unquote media company
that you look at to achieve the same objective?
But the strategic imperative I thought -- that we kind of reinvent the
company. Every two or three years, we kind of reinvent the company, and it
was time to be in content, although I think of it more as destination sites.
We're not going to do it ourselves. The better thing would be to acquire five
or 10 leaders in sports or music or what have you. Or some other media
company. But when you look at the Internet, AOL stands head and shoulders
above the pack. In the media companies, Time Warner stands head and shoulders
above the pack, and you drop down significantly and there's Disney and then
there's a handful of News Corps and NBC's and things like that that really
are on a different kind of scale.
So AOL and Time Warner was the one that I knew was right and it was just
a matter of getting it done. The real question was could we resolve all the
complicated issues like valuation -- how do you get to a common ground of
Internet valuations of this and media valuations of that?
And how do you make sure you get the best of both worlds in terms of the
management teams? If we have any problem, it's an embarrassment of riches
because between the two companies, we have an unbelievable cadre of terrific
executives.
We need to keep them all, and keep their heads in the game, and even
attract more to really capitalize on this opportunity.
LEVIN: When you think about it, just think about it for one second. Our
mantra for awhile was, well, they, can't build what we have. They have to
buy it. But we could build it. Now we're never going to know the answer to
that, but at least that was a mindset for awhile, and I think that's very
important because what does the AOL-Time Warner transaction mean?
Well, it certainly means something about respective valuations, like the
Internet is real and media properties have real value and in that context it
certainly means that. But what about this concept of a media company
building itself into this space? Who is going to do it and can it be done?
So to me that's an interesting question. That's when somebody says,
well, how do you put these two things together? I'd much rather accept that
challenge than the other.
CASE: We both were underestimating the complexity of building what each
other had and that's been true for 10 years. How hard is AOL? This little
software, and e-mail, and bang, you're done.
How hard is a magazine? You hire an editor, and you know, get a printing
press contract. Bang, you're done. Well, it's hard! (LAUGHTER)
Q: Where are the savings?
LEVIN: It's not the traditional savings, you know, when there's a merger
and you get these cost efficiencies and you've cut out duplicated overheads.
This is primarily supercharged revenues that have a much more efficient cost
basis so that the incremental revenue stream, will be something that couldn't
have been gotten by both companies.
Maybe 70 or 80 percent of that gets dropped from the bottom line. So
this is a billion dollars of EBITDA, not a billion dollars of revenue, and it
seems fairly simple to accomplish as we look at the incremental revenue
streams that'll come on both sides of the company in the very first year of
full operation.
Q: One of the things that struck us reading that release was just
thinking back to the merger with Turner where the FTC pretty much imposed a
period when you weren't able to have discussions like that and it lasted for
about 15 months. Do you anticipate a similar response from the government
that freezes all these kinds of discussions until you close the deal?
LEVIN: I guess we apply the standard here that commercial arrangements
were good marketplace arrangements for both companies. Having said that, I
think it's somewhat like a Warner Brothers movie being sold to a Turner
network for the first network window. It's a marketplace number, but the fact
that it's available and then it's done and the deal was struck, has a lot to
do that there's a family interest in it.
I think first of all I believe we'll have a heavy contest between the FTC
and the Justice Department as to who takes jurisdiction of this.
Once that takes place, then I think the legal requirement is that you
can't really push things together but you can do a lot of things. During the
Turner period, we started CNNSI, because it was a good thing to do and it
would fly anyhow. We'll probably have more things that we know we can do
together. Let's think InStyle, or a lot of thing that are happening in the
supercharged People empire. I could say I'm impatient with the way it's
going, so let's get AOL in there.
CASE: It's also apples and oranges. I think with Turner, even though
this is a bigger deal per se, it's a very different deal in terms of its
strategic orientation. I think that was a deal where a media company with
significant television assets was buying another media company with
significant television assets. This is a situation where AOL, the Internet
company with no magazines, no TV channels, no books, no music, et cetera, et
cetera, no cable systems, is merging with Time Warner which has no dial-up
Internet customers, which has no instant messaging customers, et cetera.
If AOL was proposing to buy Yahoo or Time Warner was proposing to buy
Disney, those are very different mergers. This is a very different kind of
construct.
Going back to the other question of the synergies, there are going to be
huge opportunities to create terrific new business. We have an opportunity
now to apply some of the lessons we learned over the past decade to
television -- and maybe the next decade reinvent television. It'll be more
personalized, interactive -- those are new opportunities.
But the real initial focus is on the obvious things, like that AOL spends
hundreds of millions of dollars on marketing to build its brand. Obviously
there is a cross-promotional capability in terms of shows or free time and so
forth that has huge potential for us.
Q: You've been spending 100 million to market?
CASE: Hundreds of millions. I don't know what the current number is.
Probably half a billion or something, something in that range. You spend a
lot of money on marketing, and a lot of that money goes to TV networks and
magazines and so forth.
Similarly, on the Time Warner side, we do have the capacity to build
bigger audiences for Time Warner Websites. You have a bigger audience, you
can sell more advertising. So there are cost-savings in terms of
promotional, cost-promotion and revenue opportunities in terms of bigger
advertising, it's just sort of a no-brainer. That's independent of these
exciting opportunities such as AOL TV.
Q: Steve, on the question getting back --
LEVIN: Can I just go back to that because there is underneath this
direct parallel between what AOL has built and what HBO has done, and it's
what Time Magazine does, it's the power of the subscription. You start out,
it costs a lot of money to get it started and you run like hell to get some
subscribers who pay you out of inertia on a continuing basis. You then take
that money and you build an infrastructure -- this is what people haven't
quite grasped yet, and why the valuation of AOL is quite appropriate. It's a
revenue stream that's quite reliable, it's perceived value, and it continues.
You then -- assuming you're first -- or you gain a first position, then
you have enough cashflow to keep reinvesting to build more service, more
value, so the customer either pays you additional money for more services, or
you start new services. You get so far ahead and the reason why it is a
financially desirable model is that the cost of acquiring either a new
subscriber or giving that same subscriber additional service is so modest
because you've already amortized the infrastructure cost. That simple
proposition is what AOL is about. It's essentially what Time Warner is about.
That's a very profound position to be in. And that's essentially what's
underneath the dynamic of both companies. It also struck me that's a very
similar proposition, and it happens it's not B-to-B, it's the consumer here.
So that's also very good. I think what the shock of recognition is actually
how similar the companies are, although they come from these different spaces.
Q: I wanted to get back to the synergy and decentralization which is
centralization, and in the previous mergers of TIME and Warner and TIME and
Turner, and stuff, what happened was new operating units got created. We now
have five operating units. With this merger, we could have a sixth one in
the company, that was digital, or it could totally change four --
CASE: You could have 10.
Q: Or you could use this as a way to totally transform the company, so
that publishing is not separate from digital or separate from music and you
restructure the company in a strategic and radical way because of this,
instead of allowing independent operating units to cooperate and compete
almost as if they were independent companies. How do you all see that?
CASE: Well, first, we see it as being the most important question to
answer correctly and one that begs a lot of thoughtfulness and not something
that we should rush over a weekend. So that's why we put in place this
integration team with Bob Pittman as a big part and Tim Novack, our vice
chairman and Richard Bressler, and they will be working over the coming
months to look at a variety of different options and then make a
recommendation to Jerry on it.
There's a recognition that there are a lot of different businesses,
subtleties, people, a lot of things to take into account, and there are
probably half a dozen different ways to structure it. I do think that coming
at it with a sense that maybe a fresh approach, a more transforming approach
might work better, is one of the things that should be on the table. At the
same time, there is a recognition, you've got to protect some traditions,
like the journalistic tradition and church and state and things like that.
So I think we'll close the deal later this year, nine months or so, we'll
use that nine months and really roll up our sleeves and look at all the
different kind of options. I think everything should be on the table.
One of the reasons I was comfortable with Jerry being CEO is a
recognition that within Time Warner, let alone within an AOL-Time Warner,
they're very different businesses and personalities and cultures and
perspectives and traditions and legacies and priorities and so forth. It's
not this one-size-fits-all homogenized approach. The way you approach the
movie-making business is very different than the way you approach the
magazine business or the cable business.
LEVIN: In its day, the Time Warner transaction was groundbreaking.
Mistakes were made. One of the primary mistakes was to fully negotiate the
structure of the new company almost position by position, in a situation
where it's really part of a negotiation before you're up and running based on
perceived leverage with respect to each individual point.
That certainly isn't a satisfying thing to do. Secondly, people were
reveling in the differences between the cultures, and in fact, over time it
became clear to me that there is a lot of similarities.
But that was a background strike against its working early on, and then
finally, every deal, no matter what principle you try and apply or what
management notion of centralization, decentralization, entrepreneurial,
synergistic, it's all about the orientation of the people involved, including
those who are calling the shots and there was built intention in the
companies for just a lot of reasons.
So that's one experience, having lived through the experience and then
working through it has actually been very valuable, just as working through
Orlando or the failed Teletext has been very valuable.
With the Turner merger, we did have a transition team and we did put
people, but we also took some things out of Turner and moved them around. We
disaggregated a motion picture studio, we moved a lot of the distribution,
and actually one of those moves we've just recently reversed four or five
years later.
So that's a pretty interesting model for trying to do it right. In this
case, I think we had yet a new situation where my philosophic tendency will
be to want to make more of a transformation than anything that's gone before,
still consistent with the fact that even in the new company, the pre-existing
Time Warner businesses are 75 percent of the revenue and to a great extent
cash flow.
The other thing I'd say is in this case, the personal orientation of the
people will be very important and so how do you know upfront that that's
going to work? And here's where I believe a lot of the preaching that has
gone on recently by us and by me, about our values, is absolutely critical to
the success of this business transaction because if I didn't believe that --
and Mel, it goes back to his call and the thing going around in my mind is
for sure this is great and I get it, it's a big idea, but this is TIME
MAGAZINE, this is Warner Bros., this is the heritage of this company.
There needs to be not just business respect for that, so disaggregate it
in some kind of Internet flourish, but respect for it in the values as to
what this thing is all about. So unless I made a big mistake in personal
assessment here, that's the pivot point for me. When I became comfortable
with that, it's not that we still could have fallen apart on valuations, lots
of other things, but that's why I believe this'll work with respect to people.
CASE: I just echo that. That was a big deal to me because there are --
I'm not going to name them -- there are media companies that are successful
that I could not fathom merging with because I don't think they have some of
the shared values in terms of shouldering the responsibility for what they
do, of really recognizing not just the shareholder interest but also the
public interest.
I think that's very important. I think companies need to be more active
in not just playing to Wall Street but also doing what's right for Main
Street.
I really believe that. And Jerry does. It's not just saying it. You
have to live it. But it's an important signal and a fairly unique signal.
So I think that was a key part of this, looking at properties and saying
I'd be proud to be chairman of a company that had this and this and while
there might be other mergers and media companies that you could name, I
wouldn't be able to say the same thing. I think on the organization side
it's important that as we make this transformation that Time Warner become an
Internet company and that AOL become a media company -- but not simply about
transforming them, but morphing them into this next thing.
It's really the recognition that the combination of these, integrated in
the right way, is extremely compelling and it has to be designed carefully,
like real sensitivities to make sure that the ultimate structure is organized
in the way that best serves the needs of consumers. That ultimately is what
companies are all about.
If you look at successful companies and less successful companies, to me
one of the real lessons of the last 10 years is all about people, that the
people you are able to attract and motivate and retain and so forth, if
you've got the right people focused on the right initiatives, then you're in
business, and if you don't, you're not.
It's more like a sports team. The right players, the right coaches, make
a huge difference. When a good coach comes into a team that's been losing,
somehow you start winning. How did that happen? It shows you that the
importance of people.
So the structure has to be designed with great sensitivity, great
recognition that there are subtleties between these businesses, many of which
I'm sure I don't yet appreciate and hopefully we'll learn more about in the
months ahead. Ultimately, the best way to serve consumers as well as the best
way to attract and retain talent is to be this kind of hot-house of
innovation because of the fact that people really want to be part of this
company. They see it as being an exciting opportunity from a business
standpoint but also a wonderful platform to make a difference in the world.
That's what's going to drive this for us.
LEVIN: Just once they -- if somebody covering this transaction can find
the causal connection between the wild-eyed idealism that's being expressed
and Wall Street standards, that would be terrific because that's what we're
searching for. I really believe it, and it comes about because if I'm right,
that that base of values translates into the right people and therefore the
right structure, the right organization, then the performance will follow and
therefore it will be a leading edge company, and it will deliver shareholder
returns.
If somehow that causal connection can be made it would be terrific
because right now it sounds like this is a separate thing. We have these
values, and we go in here and make the money.
Q: Steve, you now have on your board the CEO's of two large media
companies, Thomas Middlehoff and Margorie Scardino. Do they stay on the
board after the merger, and if so, does that suggest any possible further
either alliances or mergers, particularly in overseas markets?
AOL: Well, they're different. We have not determined the makeup of the
board other than each company will contribute eight people. But Thomas
Middelhoff will not be on the board because Bertelsmann is a competitor of
Time Warner. I briefed Thomas over the weekend about this, and he decided,
which we felt was the right thing, to not participate in the board meeting
because he didn't feel like it was appropriate.
Margorie Scardino from Pearson is different. Quite a bit different than
Bertlesmann, quite a bit less competitive.
CASE: Well, no, my understanding is there are some discussions, a year
or two ago about maybe you'd consider Margorie to join the Time Warner board.
LEVIN: Rubin Mark, who is on our board, is on the Pearson board.
CASE: So she is, it's a little bit different case. She did participate
in the phone calls. We did not feel she was conflicted. So she will be
considered.
Q: Jerry, you talked about the companies having similar models,
subscription-based, although the values per subscriber I guess was totally
different. In terms of getting the valuation, and you took some heat the
last time you went through this exercise, with the Warner merger, you're
negotiating at a time when the stock is actually falling. Tell me a little
bit about reaching the valuation.
LEVIN: Yes, I think that was the toughest thing to get your arms
around and also the thing I'm most pleased about. I think in the technology
of M&A, the metrics that you arrive at are usually the standard banker
convention where you do a relative take on two stocks and you take a certain
period, then you adjust for other factors.
Here, if you look at the last 12 months, the AOL stock, you would have
had a much more favorable ratio for AOL. If you went back three years, it
would have been in Time Warner's favor by a factor of 9:1. So what that
tells you is the AOL stock is not seasoned in a conventional sense, but if
you stop there, you wouldn't get anywhere.
So what you have to do is then turn around and say what's the right
result for the shareholders in terms of participating going forward in the
benefits that will come to each side that couldn't have been derived alone?
And in that calculation, I looked very hard at the last six months, the last
18 months. I also looked at some projection as to what might happen to the
AOL stock and to the Time Warner stock with a certain exchange ratio and then
I got very fixed on an exchange ratio.
And there is kind of a bid-and-ask where AOL wanted to try and keep the
support under the AOL stock but at the same time still recognize that the
Time Warner stock was undervalued.
Undervalued in the sense of its relationship to an Internet complex, that
is to say, okay, Time Warner may actually be worth something if it's on its
own, but if you connect it to something, it's worth more. I finally got my
arms around it over the millennial holiday, waiting for the Time issue to
come out on that Monday, but watching 100 hours on CNN. It actually came into
mind and said "I think this is the right number", and it happened to be 1.5,
and that's assuming we're working out all the other things, I'm going to put
that in front of Steve and Ken Novack and saying this is not a negotiation,
high-low, I think that's the right number.
I think it's the right number for the AOL shareholders and for the
Time Warner shareholder. And the proof of that will be if in the end some
people think that AOL has been sold at too much of a discount or Time Warner
has been sold at not a high enough premium. If we get those disparate
reactions, then we've probably done the right thing.
CASE: What we got, I think yesterday, was about what we expected. There
were some people who were criticizing me for paying such a big premium for
Time Warner, saying at the close on Friday, AOL if you look at the combined
market cap was 65 percent of the Time Warner, 35 percent of it. And others
were critical of Jerry saying, well, if you look at the cashflow, 80 percent
of the cashflow is coming from Time Warner, only 20 percent is from AOL, and
we just needed to come up with something that we were both comfortable with.
The bottom line is I became convinced that AOL shareholders were better off
owning 55 percent of AOL-Time Warner than 100 percent of AOL, and similar on
Jerry's side, that Time Warner shareholders were better off owning 45 percent
of AOL-Time Warner than 100 percent because of the strategic opportunities,
but also to address some of the strategic challenges.
The real question for AOL was about broadband. People were focused on
access, but they were focusing way too much on access. The next thing they
should have focused on was, okay, if you get the access how's the service
going to sing? On Time Warner, there's all these wonderful assets, but it's
sort of missing in action in the Internet. If it was an Internet company and
had Yahoo's multiple -- you know.
LEVIN: Let's go back to a fundamental valuation concept. It's really
about discounting future cashflows. So one profound thing that's taken place
here is that I am acknowledging certain Internet valuations, at least as
applied to a company like AOL is actually a fair valuation. It's not crazy.
So if I accept that, that's a very important premise, then I also -- now
putting an AOL shareholder's hat on -- have to accept that in fact, these
Time Warner properties are very valuable and all I'm doing by putting it
together is I'm accelerating the time when that value can be realized and so
there should be something, some recognition of that so that the Time Warner
shareholders get this acceleration and hence someone calls that a premium.
But in fact, that is all it is.
And basically since this is a merger of equals, it is trying to get the
numbers straight so that you give the Time Warner shareholders this
acceleration and you validate the AOL valuation and you pretty much come up
with, it's somewhere in the zone of 50-50, although there's 55-45, is just
the way it ends up based on the current number of shares that are out there.
CASE: But there is a problem here. The thing I was most worried about
as we were thinking of this the last few months is the AOL stock would run
up. It sounds bizarre, but basically I recognize that from Time Warner's
perspective of a merger of equals was an important concept and something,
50-50 or close to 50-50 was going to be important, and our stock, like all
Internet stocks are, is very volatile.
Last spring, we had a market value of $200 billion. Everyone thought we
could do no wrong, and then within six months, it had dropped to $100 billion
and everybody thought Microsoft was going to offer free access and kill us.
Then it went back up. And so, it's very volatile. You have to kind of look
beyond that, and as we were looking at things in the last couple of months
and particularly in the last couple of weeks, our stock had come down a
little bit, which was actually helpful in getting to a common ground where
Jerry could feel like he had done the right thing for his shareholders in
getting something that is close to 50-50 and I could feel that I was doing
the right thing for AOL shareholders without looking like I was paying too
much of a premium, even though I wasn't particularly focused on that because
the volatility of our stock could make that premium bounce up and down so
dramatically in very short periods of time.
LEVIN: If you go back to the Time Warner merger which was a merger of
equals and a stock for stock transaction until Marvin Davis came by, then the
Warner shareholders owned a greater percentage than the Time, Inc.
shareholders.
Q: This is the flip side, though, Jerry, of the discounted cashflow
argument, that AOL has been enjoying a cashflow growth rate of around 50
percent, Time Warner 15 percent, so the combined company by my bad math is
around 27 percent. So those are really slowing down the Internet possibility
or the Internet valuation possibilities. The Wall Street valuator went out
with the ... and said gee, we had this thing that was growing at 50 percent.
I had to slow down my view of it.
LEVIN: First of all, let's put PE's aside. This is going to
be a cashflow company. Twenty-seven percent -- let's choose that pro forma. So
that's a pro forma revenue growth number. The juice in this company is going
to come from the cashflow growth, because, and I'll go back to my statement
of the original formula: Once you have these amortized streams and we used
the number yesterday that we have 100 million subscribers across the company,
and you go through all those, but if you're contributing some of them, the
cashflow margin, on the margin, of incremental revenues, if we're smart
enough to figure it out, we sure as hell ought to be, is somewhere in the 70
or 80 percent, which is basically the cable business, too.
And so that means that you get the turbocharges on what we call the
EBITDA or the cashflow, and I believe strongly that we can justify the
valuations because of that kind of growth rate. Even putting the billion
dollars out there right away, even in advance of the transition team doing
all of its stuff.
So I think we're somewhat beguiled here by the fact -- and maybe this
transaction will help it. The Internet valuations seem -- someone is trying
to find a metric that will satisfy it. So it's a multiple of revenues or
it's aggregate value to revenues, that ratio, when in fact, I actually came
back in my own mind with respect to AOL and did a per-sub valuation. What
are these subs really worth going forward? And I got very comfortable.
Now let me go back to the ratio.
If you come to this and you're a doubter and you're a Time Warner
shareholder, and you think what happened in AOL stock last summer, hey,
that's the real value? Then this is a merger of equals, it's 50-50 and the
exchange ratio worked.
If, however, you think that the 200 billion is the real value, then
you'll get Time Warner up to a level that's pretty close to that. That to me
is the elegance of this. Well, I can tell you, I thought long and hard about
it. And as I say, I'm satisfied that we've made a breakthrough here, because
what would have prevented a deal like this from happening before, put the
social issues aside just for a moment? It's really how can you possibly
bridge the valuation gap?
CASE: AOL, interestingly, some people joke, is sort of the widows and
orphans play in the Internet space because you look at our company, our
earnings, it is a whole class different than the other Internet companies.
In fact, you probably could add all the Internet companies together and we
would have more revenues and more earnings. So it is actually valued at a
multiple of earnings much, much less -- a multiple of revenue -- much, much
less than the Internet space.
So we're already kind of somewhere in the middle between them and now, on
a pro forma basis, you're right, it goes to kind of a 30-ish multiple which
is compared to other companies pretty moderate, and the question is are we
able to execute a strategy that really captures some of these opportunities,
not just on some of the revenue figures, but whole new businesses we can
create and positions more and more of an Internet company.
Q: So how do you take that pro forma? The 30-some pro forma? What will
you see, if you do things right? Where does it go?
CASE: I'm not going to put a number on the table. But obviously, this
is viewed as an Internet company. There's a huge upside. And I think this
notion of here are Internet companies and here are media companies is not
going to be the way it's looked at five years from now. They are blurring
together. Ultimately, they are the same in that from a consumer standpoint,
there are ways you get information and ways you communicate, ways you buy
products, the way you've learned things, the way you're going to entertain.
That's the way consumers look at it, and I'm proud to say, the last five
years, it went from 1 million AOL members to 20 million members, and I'm
proud to say that in the last five years, people have used it, it went from
an hour a week to an hour a day.
But it's never lost on me that an hour a day is nothing compared to the
time they spend watching television, listening to music, reading books,
reading magazines. This is the real world, and we want to basically have an
impact on the real world, and in the real world people are more and more
excited about the Internet, more and more excited about the possibilities,
feel more and more empowered. There is more and more diversity of choices,
with millions of Websites and so forth.
But although they are spending more and more of their life on the
Internet and will now take it from the PC to the television and from the
television to pocket devices and data phones and so forth, they still are
going to watch television, they still are going to read books. I'm proud to
report they're still going to read magazines, Time Magazine and Sports
Illustrated and Fortune and so forth and the ability, and the recognition of
that and the ability to take some of these traditions into this new world and
take some of our new world thinking in terms of how to build a sense of
community, to apply those lessons to some of the Time Warner properties where
it makes sense and for us to learn some of the lessons that have been honed
over -- even though Jerry says the company is only 10 years old and we are an
older company, which I guess -- I don't know what exactly that means, but it
seems like a nice thing for him to say. I know that the tradition of this
company is not a tradition of 10 years, it's a tradition of Henry Luce, 75 or
80 years, and we're pretty smart people, we're pretty adaptable people, but
there is nothing like the school of hard knocks, and we think it's great that
there's a company that's built this kind of tradition.
LEVIN: And actually, Little, Brown started in 1839. It was helpful --
AOL makes money, has a profitable formula, has real management, real good
board and therefore is like a blue chip company in the Internet space. It's
very helpful to our thinking and certainly to our board's thinking.
Q: What does it do to everybody else and all your peer groups, your
industry? Does this create a new wave of mergers that follows you or is this
one of a kind transaction that can't be replicated by anymore else?
CASE: I think this is one of a kind. As I said, you're really looking
at the number one company on the Internet and the number one company in the
media space. I think it's one of a kind. It's presumptuous for me to
postulate what somebody else's strategy might be, somebody else's reaction
might be.
I think if you look at the basic guiding principles of this, I've said it
before, but we're trying to change the way people get information,
communicate, buy products, and learn things.
We are trying to blur the lines between media and entertainment,
communications, the Internet. We are trying to build bridges between the
television, the telephone and the PC. And to the extent, and I believe, and
I've believed for some time, the extent -- you're just doing one little piece
of the jigsaw puzzle. That's not really probably in the long run, going to
serve the interests of the consumers. Consumers do want diversity, they do
want choice, which is one of the things they like about the Internet. But
they also want convenience.
In fact, one of the trends we are starting to see is that, as people
integrate the Internet more in their lives, they love it. They're just --
they're tantalized by it. They can't believe all the things they can do with
it, in terms of somebody instant messaging with their mother at the other end
of the country.
AOL: You probably all have been given -- I'm sure you have -- many job
offers where you could make more money and you say, well, money is not
insignificant. I have family, college education, things like that. That's
not the only thing. There is other factors and you're proud to be Time
Magazine. It's just a different thing than if you were running a little
website even if you made a lot of money.
What we want to do is be able to create this environment where people are
excited by the possibilities. They are the change agents. They are doing
the innovative things. They are able to acquire brands like we did with ICQ
and take them to the next level and it's just tremendously exciting because
you're really at the epicenter of a change in how people live their lives.
At the same time, you have the ability to make a lot of money because stock
options can do that.
At the same time, you are part of a company that's going to make a
difference. This is a company that is going to set the standard of this next
century for how to serve the public interest, and it's not just rhetoric on
the day of a press conference. It is things that Jerry believes and I
believe and our actions in the past I think support that. We've made
commitments to the digital divide, we've made commitments to protecting
privacy.
We've been a leader in making sure the Internet is safe for kids. And
through this company, we think we can make a difference.
One person -- I won't say who it was -- told me not too long ago that
independent of this, "I hope you realize that as the head of AOL you have in
some ways as much potential impact on people's lives as if you were President
of the United States, and I hope you internalize that and shoulder that
responsibility."
Well, if that was true before, it's certainly going to be even more true
now. Companies can make a difference, and it's partly based on what they do
in their business to change people's lives, but also what leadership they
take beyond their business and I think that's very, very important and we
both shared that view. We do think we have an opportunity to create the most
valuable company.
We also have to create the most respected company. If we just make
another billion dollars and it's the most valuable company and are on the
cover of TIME three more times, been there, done that.
Now it's a time to make a difference, and this company I think is
uniquely able to really kind of go for the stars here and really try to set a
new example, set a new pace for corporations.
LEVIN: Just two points. First of all, Joel Silver called me last night
and said he enjoyed our press conference a lot more than the presidential
debates... Actually he was talking about the Republican debate. We talked
about the concept of business failure and how important it is. I can give
you the three examples. We made movies at Time, Inc. We had Time-Life films
that made Ft. Apache the Bronx and two others.
We made three films. It was clear to me that we should make movies, that
that should be a part of this company. So we eventually put Warner Bros. in
the company. But those failures, and to try to do it out of HBO, really
pre-disposed us.
We also needed an advertiser-supported network base. So we tried several
things again out of our own base and failed. I had also wanted to do a cable
news service but we weren't making money at the time at HBO so we didn't do
it.
Well, so we eventually put Turner in the company. The Pathfinder
experience, the Teletext experience, to me, resonated that this is absolutely
essential.
So what I'm saying, it's not just the theory because it emboldened me to
want to do something. There were very positive results. In other words, you
could see the opportunity in what we were doing.
I can't call it a failure, and so yes, now we need to be together with
AOL, to realize it, but was Orlando a failure? No. I'm trying to do it in a
way that doesn't sound offensive or really simplistic, but it really is very
important.
CASE: When all is said, you want to market your failures and your
successes.
LEVIN: If the failure was just a complete disaster, that would be
one thing. But since there were reasons why it didn't get extrapolated and
it actually had data points that were extremely valid and that's what you
assimilated or incorporated. then that's a very interesting part of the
business.
But we have basically a New York Post society, and it's essentially
winners and losers at any given moment. And so therefore that somehow gets
in the way or predisposes you or makes you not want to take some steps that
you actually should take, and so the one other characteristic of Mr. Case,
having lived through a lot of things myself, is this persistence element,
that when the whole world is saying this is crazy, and you know, it's not
that you're wild-eyed and this is not Don Quixote, De la Mancha, but it's
just that you uniquely do have a conviction based on valid data points.
CASE: Although there's good news-bad news on this. I do share the view
that has been expressed by others, it's a contrarian point, that it's a bad
sign to be on the cover of TIME MAGAZINE, cover of BUSINESSWEEK. Can I add,
Walter, I think Jeff (Bezos) is a terrific kind of representative of what's
great about the Internet, but ultimately, it's not about that the stock is
bouncing around, the headlines for the moment. To the extent you think of
this in a longer term perspective, what do they say about you in your
obituary and they're probably not going to say how rich you were, they
probably aren't going to say how many deals you did and things like that.
The question is what -- did you make a difference? Everybody wants to
make a difference, whether it be in their family life or their business life
or some people have a business life and a political life because they think
they can make a difference there.
It seems to me that there may be an integrated approach to this and maybe
you can achieve all these different objectives if you think about it instead
in more historical terms. Think about what's happened over the last century
and 100 years ago what happened was that the telephone became part of our
lives, 75 years ago what happened is cars became part of our lives, 50 years
ago what happened is television became part of everybody's life. And 25
years ago, what happened is cable television, special interest publishing,
things like that, became part of everyday life.
I think ultimately, you've got to look at these things through not the
prism of what's said today or this week or this month or this year but what's
said 50 years from now. The same thing was true said about the president,
some people it's not when they leave office what's said. It's what people 50
years from now, the historians say. I think that's really what matters.
And you think about it in that kind of sense and you recognize that it is
important to not just be the most valuable company but also be the most
respected. It is important to take very seriously the responsibility to
build a medium you can be proud of.