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That's welcome news to the country's tourist industry. A study carried out at the University of Zurich shows that if temperatures rise by about 2°C over the next 50 years, as some experts predict, ski resorts below 1,500 m may not have enough snow to attract tourists. "In the 1970s it was still possible to ski between 800 m and 1,200 m above sea level," says Professor Hans Elsasser, coordinator of the Zurich study. "Now snow is guaranteed only above 1,200 m. We are forecasting that in the next few decades the snowline will rise above 1,800m." That could mean that fewer than half of the country's 230 regions will still be viable as ski resorts, meaning that $675 million in annual revenue will melt away.
And it's not just tourists who are suffering. Lack of snow at Austria's St. Anton caused delays at this year's World Ski Championships, and crumbling slalom courses prompted talk of a boycott from the women. The situation is so bad that the Swiss resort of Vallée de Joux has taken to promoting itself as "an ideal location for summer sports" like hiking, biking and sailing.
Since the snow may not come to the skiers, many low-lying areas have decided to take the skiers to the snow. In December Compagnie des Alpes, a ski lift operator with investment in 13 upscale resorts in France, Switzerland and Italy, will open a large gondola linking the Haute-Savoie village of Samoëns at 800 m with the Flaine resort at 1,600 m. "We'll take them up the mountain, where they'll ski between 1,600 and 2,500 m," says Compagnie des Alpes vice president André Surelle. "In the evening, they'll take the gondola back down."
Conservationists warn that such projects are hazardous to the health of both skiers and the environment. The biggest risk, they believe, is that melting permafrost will further erode already fragile slopes, thereby increasing the risk of mudslides and falling rocks. "There is lack of will at the resort level to do the right thing environmentally," says Prince Sadruddin Aga Khan, head of the environmental group Alp Action in Geneva. "They don't want to kill the goose laying the golden eggs." Surelle plays down the danger. "Our studies show that our pylons are sitting on solid ground," he says. "We aren't taking any additional safety measures."
When nature won't oblige, many resorts make their own snow. French ski stations last year spent a record $37 million on snow-making equipment. Artificial snow may not be a long-term solution, though, since it's expensive and, without freezing temperatures, quickly disappears.
The future is not entirely bleak. Popular areas such as Zermatt, Davos and Klosters aren't expected to be affected by eventual warming since they are at much higher elevations. Some research suggests that regions above 2,500 m could find that increased precipitation helps compensate for earlier melting in the spring. But if global warming continues, skiers may have to venture higher and farther to find fewer slopes.
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