Seoul Searching: Caught in the Middle

Wednesday, Apr. 11, 2001 Korea is fuming over a revisionist Japanese textbook, but another clash over national pride is just as important to the peninsula: the standoff between the United States and China over the crew of a downed American spy plane.

The high school textbook Tokyo just approved rubs salt in a still-unhealed wound: Korea's sense of anger and humiliation over Japan's long colonial domination of their country. The textbook itself is a product of Japanese neo-nationalism: the right-wing authors think the country has to "pretty up" its history to give young Japanese a sense of patriotism. That right-wing Japanese nationalism is dangerous, some Koreans argue, because it could slide into a resurgence of militarism. That isn't happening. Japan is an aging society burdened with a broken economy, intellectually bankrupt leaders, and a deep sense of malaise over where it is headed. Betting against a Japanese comeback is always dangerous, but Japan is down for the count right now. If anything, the danger is Japan's own sense of injured national pride could one lead one day to a clash with China -- with Korea caught in the middle.

The more immediate threat for Korea is the diplomatic showdown on Hainan Island. China's leaders know Communist ideology doesn't do it for young Chinese anymore, but, like Cuba's Fidel Castro, they know the power of nationalism to line up citizens behind their leaders. President Jiang Zemin won't release the 24 American men and women detained in Hainan until he is good and sure he isn't going to come under fire for letting off the Americans too lightly. By the same token, he stands to score a lot of points as a nationalist leader, if he pulls this off and makes the Chinese public believe the Americans backed down. That's of course why the Chinese love to pull Japan's chain over their phony textbooks: easy points. It reminds everybody that the Communists fought Japanese Imperialism. And guess what? They can stand up to American Imperialism, too.

As China gains in confidence and stature, close neighbor Korea will have to pull off a tough balancing act: maintaining strong ties with both China and the U.S. Tension between the two just makes that harder. China, of course, is North Korea's main economic and military supporter. So if China and the U.S. can't get along, forget about reunification of the Korean peninsula. (A reunified Korea could mean U.S. troops right along the Chinese border.) From Beijing's perspective, it makes more sense to keep giving the North Korean regime just enough guns and butter to keep it from collapsing.

Where does that leave President Kim Dae Jung's "sunshine" policy of engagement with the North? In worse shape than last month, when Washington threw cold water on it. With Washington feuding with Beijing -- both necessary players in any solution to real detente on the peninsula -- the momentum of last summer's inter-Korean summit meeting is sure to slow even further.

Korea has carefully avoided saying anything publicly about the U.S.-Sino crisis. But you can be sure it is keeping thoughtful politicians and policymakers up at night.