The Rise and Fall and Rise of Silvio Berlusconi

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Rocco Buttiglione puffs on his toscano cigar and recalls the first time he ever met Silvio Berlusconi. "It was in 1978," says the philosophy professor and leader of the center-right Christian Democratic Union. "He was just moving into the TV business and thought he had to learn more about Italian society and politics. So he asked me to give him some classes on democracy and government. His approach surprised me, but it is the very image of Berlusconi — he is a man capable of learning and eager to learn."

Since the billionaire business mogul first jumped into the political arena and won election as Prime Minister in 1994 he has learned a lot — mostly from his own mistakes. Berlusconi came to power as a political dilettante and stuffed his cabinet with largely inexperienced cronies. He challenged the country's powerful judges and soon found himself in the cross hairs of numerous investigations. After only seven lackluster months, Berlusconi's government toppled when a key ally pulled out of the center-right coalition.

That could have been the end of Berlusconi's foray into politics. Yet today the so-called Il Cavaliere, 64, is poised to win his old job back in the May 13 face-off against former Rome Mayor Francesco Rutelli, 46, photogenic head of the ruling center-left Olive Tree coalition. In policy terms, there are no major differences between the two sides. Both call for lower taxes, better services, stronger economic growth, continued privatization, reinforced anticrime measures and tougher policies on illegal immigration.

More than anything, the campaign is shaping up into a battle of personalities between Berlusconi, the self-made entrepreneur, and Rutelli, the younger, smoother political pro. Or as the Italians like to say, the Rich against the Beautiful. Though the gap is narrowing the latest polls show Berlusconi leading by four points. But with more than 20% of the electorate still undecided, Rutelli pins his hopes on pulling these swing voters to his side.

The center-left can point to some real accomplishments since economist Romano Prodi led them to victory in 1996 — not the least of which was to stay in power for a full parliamentary term, no mean feat in Italy. Prodi oversaw a heroic effort to bring down Italy's chronic deficits and qualify for entry into the E.U.'s single currency in 1998. More than $75 billion worth of state industries were privatized, inflation was slashed in half and the economy achieved healthy growth rates. But Italy still lags behind most of its European partners, with slower growth and higher unemployment than the E.U. average.

The government's most glaring failures came in the political arena. Born of the breakup of the old ruling class following the corruption probes of the early '90s, the Olive Tree was a heterogeneous collection of former Socialists, Christian Democrats and reformed ex-Communists, now known as the Left Democrats and headed by Massimo D'Alema. The coalition was held hostage by the tiny hard-line Communist Refoundation, whose votes it needed to stay in power. When Communist Refoundation withdrew its support in October 1998, D'Alema succeeded Prodi as Prime Minister only to pass the torch to Giuliano Amato, a centrist technocrat, following losses in last year's regional elections.

For a coalition that had promised a new kind of politics, the revolving-door turnover seemed all too familiar. "D'Alema made a fundamental mistake in eliminating Prodi as Prime Minister, because Prodi was the man with whom the center-left had gone to the polls," says Franco Pavoncello, professor of political science at Rome's John Cabot University. "His removal made the electorate lose their sense of contact with the government." D'Alema's other mistake was to resurrect Berlusconi by naming him to a government commission that was seeking to reform the electoral system and put an end to Italy's comic-opera political instability.

The aim was to replace proportional voting with a majority system that, it was hoped, would create a stable bipolar system. A partial reform in 1993 produced a hybrid arrangement, with three-quarters of the seats chosen by majority vote and the remainder proportionally. The result was to multiply the number of parties, currently more than two dozen, and make the system even more unwieldy. Last May, the government held a referendum to eliminate proportional voting entirely in national elections. But Berlusconi shrewdly turned it into a plebiscite against the government and called for abstention. His battle cry: "Stay at home and send them home." A majority of Italians heeded his advice.

Though the referendum was massively approved, it was ruled invalid because less than 50% of the electorate voted. Following strong center-right scores in the European elections of June 1999 and the regionals of April 2000, the failed referendum handed Berlusconi a third "victory" and made him the front runner for the Prime Minister's job. In what was widely seen as an act of desperation, last October the Olive Tree's chieftains decided to jettison the bland Amato, 62, in favor of the charismatic Rutelli as its standard bearer. "Strange way to choose a leader," says

Stefano Folli, political commentator for the Milan daily Corriere della Sera. "It was just an image operation, and the electorate perceives this. Rutelli is a good campaigner, but the people identify with Berlusconi as a man of success who can create wealth for everyone."