Speed Read: China's Military

The

Pentagon released its annual assessment of the Chinese military last week, and it went further than ever before. The "pace and scope" of China's armed forces modernization could now "put regional military balances at risk," it asserted, "potentially posing a credible threat to modern militaries operating in the region." Beijing reacted angrily, dismissing Washington's "improper comments" as unwarranted interference. But what is the current state of China's armed forces, and do they pose a threat to Asia or beyond?

How large is the People's Liberation Army (P.L.A.)?
Big, but still trailing the 1.4 million-member U.S. armed forces in terms of technology and equipment. Beijing has been transforming its military into a leaner, more effective fighting machine. This year it plans to cut troop numbers by 200,000, bringing its total to 2.3 million, while upgrading its strategic missiles, aircraft, warships and submarines.

How much does China spend on defense?
The only consensus among foreign observers is that China spends more than it says it does. The official budget for 2005 is about $29.9 billion, a 13% increase from the previous year. (The Pentagon's budget request is $401.7 billion for this year, up 7% from 2004.) The U.S. report says Beijing's actual defense spending could be two or three times higher than the official number. If China spent $90 billion, the high side of Pentagon estimates, it would be the third biggest military spender in the world after the U.S. and Russia.

Is China's main focus Taiwan?
Yes. An ultimate reunification with Taiwan, which Beijing sees as a renegade province, is the driving force for China's military modernization. Still, China "does not yet possess the military capability to accomplish with confidence its political objectives on the island, particularly when confronted with outside intervention," the report says.

Is Taiwan the only potential trouble spot?
Perhaps not. The Pentagon argues that China is developing military capabilities that extend farther. It says the estimated 650 to 730 Chinese short-range ballistic missiles placed along the Taiwan Strait could be deployed to other positions. And improvements in the Chinese air force's ability to refuel airborne fighters and its navy's acquisition of destroyers and submarines could help make China a threat farther afield. Still, says Bonnie Glaser, a China expert at the Washington, D.C.-based Center for Strategic and International Studies: "The threat to the region is [currently a matter of] capabilities, not necessarily intent." Thomas Christensen, a Princeton University professor of politics and international affairs, says the point of the latest report is that "given the political uncertainties in China, the military capability that's being developed could be turned against the U.S. or its allies in the future." That fear was exacerbated two weeks ago when a major general in the P.L.A. threatened the destruction of hundreds of American cities if the U.S. attacks Chinese territory—including warships or aircraft—in a conflict over Taiwan. Beijing insisted that the general was speaking for himself. And for now, according to most estimates, there are fewer than 30 Chinese missiles capable of hitting the continental U.S. with a nuclear warhead.