Get Ready to Do It Again

Som

e elections throw up surprises. But as vote counting began Sunday afternoon in his constituency on the northern fringe of the Thai capital Bangkok, election officer Somchai Sripetch wasn't expecting any. Not only were no opposition candidates standing in Nonthaburi Constituency 3—a fate shared by two-thirds of Thailand's 400 constituencies, due to a boycott by three main political parties—but the ruling party candidate was a late scratch as well, disqualified Friday because she didn't vote in the last election. Voters were asked to fill out the party-list ballot (Out of Thailand's 500 parliament members, 100 are elected by party while the rest are elected by constituency) and to come back later this month to vote for a local representative. Somchai, 48, sent 200 of his 400 volunteer election workers home early. He's resigned to more sleepless nights of counting ballot slips. "This is the year of elections," he says.

There's more on the way. Thailand woke up Monday to a bumpy political landscape, with gaping holes in the support base of Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who hoped the election would give him a boost following months of protests against his rule. He may have won the votes he expected in the countryside, but Bangkok was less forgiving. Unofficial results put his candidates in the capital trailing the "No Vote" box on the ballot—a victory for the boycotters. Southern Thailand, an opposition stronghold, is also set to deliver a resounding "No" that could leave many of its 56 seats unfilled. (Candidates must get at least 20% of eligible votes in uncontested seats to be able to claim victory.) Thailand's Election Commission has 30 days to redo any invalid races, while it also investigates a raft of complaints over electoral fraud, voter intimidation and other inconsistencies. And in between all the by-elections and recalls, Thailand is scheduled to vote in a new Senate on Apr. 19.

Investors, while braced for more political bumps, have been betting on Thaksin riding out the storm. Thailand's stock market rose 5% in the year ending Mar. 31, despite the eruption of street protests in February over the tax-free $1.9 billion sale of Thaksin's family-owned media group Shin Corp to Singapore's Temasek Holdings. Foreign investors have poured billions of dollars into Thai stocks since last year. But the country's privatization program is in tatters after a court blocked the sale of the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (EGAT) last month, and political stalemate could mean a long wait for several infrastructure projects—trains, ports and water plants—that Thaksin pitched to foreign executives in January. "It's not policy drift, it's policy collapse," warns Andrew Stotz, Citigroup head of research in Thailand. So far investors seem to be standing pat; the Thai stock exchange's SET Index was down only slightly early Monday.

In the insurgent-plagued southern province of Narathiwat, three bombs tore through polling stations after the polls closed, injuring four security officers. But elsewhere, Sunday's ballot went smoothly; the biggest fuss was the arrest of an anti-Thaksin academic in Bangkok who ripped up his ballot paper—a crime in Thailand. But that peace may not last: Bangkok is bracing for another round of postelection street protests, which could lead to clashes between rabid anti-Thaksin opponents bent on forcing him out and security forces intent on restoring order. "Police have been lenient for a very long time," national police chief Gen. Kowit Watana told reporters Sunday.

Calming Thailand's troubled political waters could take months, unless Thaksin bows to pressure and steps down. Lawyers and party officials are poring over the constitution to find ways to run an interim government until parliament can be convened. Calls to Thailand's revered King Bhumibol to intervene in the crisis are likely to go unheard, at least for now. And military meddling to end the wrangling is unlikely, say analysts. "You can't do coups like you did in the old days," said James Klein, head of the Asia Foundation in Thailand.

Amid signs that the elections are far from resolving the country's political crisis, Thais worry that that the situation may get worse before it gets better. Advertising executive Buranii Chandrapanich, 35, says she is tired of talking politics with her friends and is alarmed at the stubbornness of Thaksin and his opponents. Her firm hasn't suffered any drop in business, but consumer confidence is shaky and Chandrapanich worries that advertisers may cut back if the crisis lingers. "I feel sorry for my country," she sighed, walking back to her car after voting in suburban Bangkok. "We have no choice."