Subcontinental Drift: The China Card

Tuesday, June. 5, 2001 The elevation of Prince Gyanendra as King of Nepal presents India with a tricky problem. The new monarch is said to favor closer ties between Kathmandu and Beijing, a scenario that fills foreign policy wonks in New Delhi with dread. Successive Indian governments have striven to keep Nepal out of the Chinese sphere of influence; they succeeded mainly because of the slain King Birendra's instinctive pro-India stance. But Gyanendra is a different proposition.

From Nepal's point of view, the smartest thing for the new King to do would be to keep his options open, and advise the country's elected government to do likewise. The mountain kingdom is probably better served by its relationship with democratic India than with totalitarian China. Unlike Pakistan, Nepal isn't in the market for sophisticated missile and nuclear technology, which are China's principal offerings of friendship. But, like many Nepalis, Gyanendra is known to resent New Delhi's supercilious attitude towards its small neighbors.

In its foreign policy stance and utterances, India often acts as if it is South Asia's Big Brother, with the "little countries" --Bangladesh, Nepal, Bhutan and Sri Lanka -- expected to hop to its whims. It is no coincidence that the people of all these countries tend to be deeply suspicious (if not resentful) of India's interests and intentions. That explains why the shaven-headed rioters in Kathmandu chant "Death to India" along with other slogans as they vent their grief over last Friday's massacre. Instinctively, they believe Big Brother must somehow be embroiled in the killing of their royals.

If he is as astute as his late brother, King Gyanendra must continue to hold out the possibility of a friendship with China, if only to keep India guessing and hold New Delhi's attention. When you're dealing with Big Brother, you use whatever leverage you can.

For India, the tragedy in Kathmandu is as good an opportunity as any to reappraise its relations with Nepal. As of this writing, the Indian government has greeted Gyanendra's coronation with caution. It is a good idea for India to keep a low profile while the Nepali people grieve -- and while the air is rife with rumors and conspiracy theories. But as they work on new position papers and diplomatic initiatives, the foreign policy establishment in Delhi should know it cannot take this little country for granted.

THE SUBCONTINENTAL DRIFT ESSAY CONTEST, 2001.
In approximately three months, India and Pakistan will celebrate 54 years of independence. To commemorate the occasion, I invite you to share your views on the progress each country has made over the past five decades.

In 350 words, tell me about India's or Pakistan's single greatest achievement. You can choose from any field of endeavor: social development, politics, sport or business. Click here to send your essay.

In early August, I will pick two winners. Their submissions will be reproduced in this column.

All entries must be in English, and must be accompanied by the entrant's full name and postal address. Please note that the word limit is binding: any entry in excess of 350 words will automatically be disqualified.