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North Korea and Iran Crises May Force the U.S. to Choose
The
The Iraq war has underscored the basic reality that the U.S. is unable to topple the regimes of Iran and North Korea by force, and pressure from allies has led the Administration, somewhat reluctantly, to back limited diplomatic engagement on both fronts the six-party talks on North Korea's nuclear program, and the European Union negotiations with Iran. But all along the regime change crowd has remained sufficiently powerful to preclude direct talks with either regime, leaving the policy essentially in limbo.
Three of Washington's four partners in the Korea talks have urged Washington to talk directly to Pyongyang Japan tends towards a hard line on North Korea, and tends to coordinate more closely with the U.S. Elsewhere, all of Washington's European allies believe the U.S. should talk directly to Iran in order to resolve the nuclear standoff. And in both cases, U.S. partners want Washington to take regime change off the table, instead offering security guarantees in exchange for good behavior. But the Administration has strenuously resisted this advice, even when it has come from senior Republicans in the foreign policy establishment.
Now, with the limited U.S diplomacy about to run its course without resolving either conflict, pressure from allies to try direct talks is almost certain to grow.
Of course talking directly with either Pyongyang or Tehran will be the furthest thing from the Administration's mind right now, even more so because each has defied the preconditions demanded by Washington for making a deal. Yet, in the absence of any alternatives acceptable to the allies and partners whose support or consent would be required for any effective strategy, Team Bush may find itself finally forced to make a policy choice between engagement and regime change. The days of having it both ways be coming to an end.
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