A Boost for Diplomacy in Asia?

The détente couldn't come at a more vital time for Northeast Asia. A nuclear North Korea must be met by joint action from China, South Korea and Japan, and that seems more possible this week than it has for years. When North Korea tested missiles in July, Japan and its two neighbors found themselves on opposite sides of the issue, with Tokyo favoring stern measures and Beijing and Seoul preferring a light response. When Abe, then Chief Cabinet Secretary, publicly raised the (unlikely) possibility of Japan launching a pre-emptive strike on North Korea, Beijing and Seoul reacted as if it had been Tokyo that was lobbing missiles, excoriating Japan. This time around, the three countries are standing as one, at least rhetorically. "There were no differences between me and the Japanese prime minister on this issue," said Roh on Monday evening, adding that South Korea may end its "sunshine policy" of engagement with the North, long a source of friction with Tokyo and Washington.

But it will take more then rhetoric to stop Kim Jong Il, and after Abe goes back to Tokyo Monday night, the reality will set in that Japan, China and South Korea still have very different attitudes toward North Korea. Despite their hard words this weekend, both Beijing and Seoul will almost certainly remain reluctant to squeeze Pyongyang — for them, a nuclear North Korea may still be preferable to a collapsing one. Tokyo, meanwhile, will if anything demand an even harder line than the U.S., because Japan sits squarely in the range of North Korean missiles. Different threat levels may demand different, and even conflicting responses, and North Korea could end up splitting Northeast Asia more seriously than Yasukuni. But at least now, Tokyo, Beijing and Seoul will be able to talk it over.