Welcome to Taiwan's Swing City

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p> Thus far President Chen has been able to maintain the backing of his party's lawmakers. On Nov. 24 they blocked a third effort by the KMT to pass a measure to recall the President, which would have triggered a national referendum on his removal from office. But while the DPP is rallying around Chen in the legislature, the party's candidates are avoiding him. In Kaohsiung, images of the President that were ubiquitous on local campaign posters in past elections are now hard to find. On the morning of Chen Chu's visit to the Chukuang Market, the President came to town to visit a new shopping mall under construction. Somehow Chen Chu missed the photo opportunity, which she blamed on a scheduling error. "We are very welcoming of the President," she says, "but we have to do it when it's well-planned." She acknowledges President Chen's woes are hurting her chances. "If it weren't for these problems, I wouldn't have any trouble in this election," she says. "[The scandal] will influence the middle-of-the-road voters."

Unfortunately for Chen Chu, that's exactly who the party needs in order to win. When the DPP was formed 20 years ago, it built its support on two key groups: native Taiwanese slighted by a KMT leadership still focused on its erstwhile homeland across the strait, and urban workers angered by the KMT's legacy of cronyism and corruption. While Taiwan-independence backers are likely to stick with the DPP through a corruption scandal, their numbers aren't great enough to automatically hand the party an election. The DPP "still depends on middle-class intellectuals who think that clean politics are important," says Lin Jih-wen, an associate research fellow at the Institute of Political Science at Academia Sinica, a government-sponsored research institution in Taipei. Right now, those voters may not know where to turn. The indictment against the First Lady was followed by similar accusations of corruption against the KMT leader and outgoing Taipei Mayor Ma Ying-jeou, who admitted last month that an aide had switched receipts when tallying mayoral expenses. Prosecutors have also questioned Ma over expense money that he says went to charitable donations, but which his adversaries have accused him of pocketing.

Having Ma's woes dominate headlines has relieved some of the political pressure on President Chen. But while Ma's reputation — and his expected bid for president in 2008 — may suffer, the accusations against him are likely to have a lesser impact on his party given its old reputation for corruption. And the scandals surrounding Chen have cost the DPP its "ace in the hole," says Rigger. "Now the DPP has to fight on even footing with the KMT on that which has been their winning issue."

One person they'll be fighting over is Huang Tai-lang, a 35-year-old factory manager watching Chen Chu's procession through Kaohsiung's night market. Four years ago he voted for the DPP's Hsieh. This year, he's not sure that he'll support the party again. "In the past, I thought they were clean," he says. "Now that they're in power, the results haven't been great." If Chen Chu wants to win — and if the DPP wants to hang on to power — Huang is the kind of voter she'll need to convince.