Ramping Up the Pressure on al-Sadr

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U.S. military approaches its Iraqi enemies differently. Last week, for example, U.S. and Iraqi government forces battled Sunni insurgents in central Baghdad, calling in air strikes from jets and helicopters. But that sort of intense assault has been unthinkable against Shi’a warlord Moqtada al-Sadr's Mahdi Army, which is maneuvering for control of immense sections of Iraq.

There are clues, however, that a new phase in America's relations with Sadr may be coming. First, a U.S. took Abdul Hadi al-Daraji, a prominent Sadr operative, into custody on Friday. Then, on Saturday, American troops in the Shi'a holy city of Karbala were attacked by unknown assailants, leaving five G.I.s dead.

U.S. military officials have always expected that some sort of extended clash with Sadr's Mahdi Army may be inevitable. But previous encounters were limited because of Sadr's political ties to the Iraqi government. Indeed, the Mahdi Army and its affiliated militias seem to be biding their time with the Americans, baiting rather than battling U.S. forces. The Mahdi Army may be looking ahead to the widely forecast American troop drawdown this summer — expected to come after the "surge" — choosing to lie low and wait out the U.S. Sheikh Abdel Hadi al-Mohammedawi, who heads Sadr's office in Karbala, told TIME that both the political and military wings of the movement "have received clear and decisive instructions from Said Moqtada al-Sadr to avoid any kind of a military confrontation."

But could U.S. forces themselves now be baiting the Mahdi Army, trying to draw the militia out of the shadows and into a fight? Both the Iraqi government and the Sadrists are wondering if the detention of Daraji — and potentially other high-profile Sadr officials — is part of a plan to draw the militia into the open by targeting its leadership. An adviser to Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki told TIME that continued American raids might prompt the militia to "lose patience" and fight back. Says Mohammedawi in Karbala: "The Americans are trying to make us respond to their provocations, but we will never give them a chance." So far, no one has claimed responsibility for the killing of the five American soldiers on Saturday.

At this point, the American strategy in the early going of the troop surge seems focused on establishing small security stations and stepping up patrols in the neighborhoods around Sadr City, the Mahdi Army's stronghold in Baghdad. By maintaining a constant presence and working jointly with Iraqi units, the Americans hope to limit the influence of the militia and keep tabs on security forces that have proven largely unreliable and militia-infiltrated.

Nevertheless, U.S. forces concerned about Sadr may have been heartened by one development over this violent weekend. Prime Minister Maliki has so far not kept what Sadr supporters claim was a promise to release Daraji (the U.S. claims he is a death squad leader; his supporters say he is merely a spokesman for Sadr). It was one of the first tests of Maliki's new resolve to dissociate himself from his erstwhile political ally. The supposed deadline expired over the weekend and Maliki's government remains noncommittal on a release.

The new distance between Maliki and Sadr may give the U.S. political cover as it ramps up operations against the Mahdi Army. But how far will Maliki go? An adviser to the Prime MInister, Fadhil Al-Shar'ea, insisted that the Iraqi government and its forces did not participate in the U.S. raid that nabbed Daraji. He also said that the government was given no advance notice by the U.S. of the raid. Still, a concerted military attack involving air assaults and helicopter gunships is another matter. That’s what it may take to break the back of Sadr's militia, and there's no assurance that Maliki would go along with it.