Is Musharraf Losing His Grip?

The

fundamentalist mosque Lal Masjid has always been a headache for Pakistan's President Pervez Musharraf, a hangover from the military's longstanding affair with the now-deposed Taliban regime in next-door Afghanistan. But this radical mosque and madrassah complex, located in the middle of the relatively liberal capital, may portend an even larger problem for a military dictator already under siege.

On Tuesday, black-robed students from the woman's seminary raided what they said was a local brothel and kidnapped the alleged madam, her daughter, another female relative and her 6-month-old granddaughter. The women would only be released, said the seminary's administrator Abdul Rashid Ghazi, if they renounced their trade, which is illegal in Pakistan. A day later, seminary students descended on stores throughout the capital, demanding that they stop selling "un-Islamic" music and movies. And these actions come on top of the sit-in that began in January, when students from the madrassah occupied a nearby children's school to protest government plans to close down several fundamentalist mosques in the capital.

Police attempts to rein in this week's wave of vigilanteism by detaining two teachers and two students provoked protests by hundreds of stave-wielding students outside the mosque. Students also kidnapped two police officers, who were eventually released after hours of negotiations. On Thursday, the alleged madam, known as Aunty Shamim, was released with her relatives after she read a statement confessing to immoral acts. The confession was made under duress, she later told the Associated Press, denying that she kept a brothel. Besides, she said, "I don't think Islam allows anyone to beat a woman and drag her through the streets like a dog."

The student's actions are "evidence of growing Talibanization in the country," opines the liberal daily The News. "What's disturbing is that this isn't happening in some remote tribal region, but in the heart of the federal capital."

Such stunts by a fringe element would once have been of little consequence to a dictator who has brought unprecedented economic and social liberalizations to this Muslim nation. But Musharraf has been rattled by the wave of protest ignited by his suspension earlier this month of a popular Supreme Court justice. Liberal opposition leaders have united with Islamists to demand that Musharraf step down, while American politicians are publicly questioning his commitment to the war on terror — the basis for the strong U.S. backing he has enjoyed until now.

As anti-Musharraf forces prepare to stage a national strike, the capital is rife with rumors that the government may impose martial law — an action that would only leave it even more isolated. Against that backdrop, some see the actions of the Lal Masjid students as a deliberate provocation. Sources close to the president have gone as far as leaking to the media the claim that al-Qaeda may have a hand in stoking the antics of the seminary students, even suggesting the presence of suicide bombers and weapons inside the madrassah. It's a charge that few take seriously, but the leaks themselves underscore the desperation of a regime facing new legislative elections this fall.

Musharraf has always tried to convince the West that he is all that stands between it and nuclear-armed mullahs. Hence the temptation to invoke al-Qaeda as a source of what are clearly very local political troubles. But as novelist Moshin Hamid wrote in the New York Times this week, "Pakistan is both more complicated and less dangerous than America has been led to believe. General Musharraf has portrayed himself as America's last line of defense in an angry and dangerous land. In reality, the vast majority of Pakistanis want nothing to do with violence." Only 13% of Pakistanis supported the fundamentalist parties in the last election, and all indications are that the country's most powerful institution, the military, supports the policies of "enlightened moderation" advocated by Musharraf.

So, even if the general were to lose power in a democratic elections, the chances are that Pakistan would continue on the same faltering path set by the general when he took power in 1999. However, if he continues interfering with democratic processes by suspending judges, cracking down on the media and instituting martial law, he could more easily fall victim to the radical forces he claims to be resisting. The harder Musharraf squeezes, the more the radicals have to gain. "The time has come for him to begin thinking of a transition," writes Hamid. "And for Americans to realize that, scare stories notwithstanding, a more democratic Pakistan might be better not just for Pakistanis but for Americans as well."

—With reporting by Ghulam Hasnain