Tehran Sees the Standoff as Over

Whi

le speculation continues in the West over the fate of the 15 British sailors and marines being held in Iran, in Tehran the stand-off is nearly a wrap. On Monday, the head of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, Ali Larijani, said Iran wanted to "solve the problem using diplomatic channels." The softened tone was echoed throughout Tehran's media and policy circles, and within two days, newspapers, blogs, and analysts began tallying scores and discussing the controversy as though it were over. Former officials who last week spoke in tones of high anxiety over the prospect of military confrontation have switched to talk of how soon the Britons will be released. "Iran emerges as the great victor," announced a broadcaster on state television, before adding for effect: "and I'm quoting FOX news — a notoriously anti-Iran network."

The defused tensions reflect a belief that Larijani speaks on behalf of Iran's highest authorities, and that the leadership has signaled its intention to end the conflict. Analysts in Tehran say now that the British government has also lightened its rhetoric, Iran has little to gain from holding onto the marines. "Iran wanted to show a tough posture, signal its power to maneuver, and to demean Britain," says Saeed Laylaz, an analyst and former official. "It has achieved all that."

Now that both sides appear to be backing away from a standoff, a flurry of media commentary has emerged to insist the conflict took Tehran by surprise. Iran had no aim of damaging its relationship with Britain, explained an editorial in the news website Khedmat, linked to ,President Mahmoud Ahmedinajad and "reacted to a situation that presented itself." But when Britain sought to aggravate the situation by involving the United States, Tehran was forced to take sterner measures, such as airing footage of the detainees. "Iran had no desire to repeat any sort of hostage crisis, says Amir Mohebbian, an editor at the conservative daily Resalat. "The matter could have easily been resolved with a simple British apology."

Some analysts believe the role of Iranian public opinion encouraged Britain to de-escalate. "They realized that if they kept it up, Britain would replace the United States as public enemy number one," says Mohebbian. But others say most Iranians paid little attention to the matter, and that a hard-line student protest outside the British Embassy in Tehran scarcely reflects majority sentiment. "These kinds of protests represent the smallest minority," says Laylaz; "most ordinary Iranians care about the price of tomatoes, not issues like this."

The triumphant tone in the official media has encouraged moderate voices, previously silent on the conflict, to speak up. In a blog posting entitled "The British Marines and a Slippery Banana Peel," former vice-president Mohammed Ali Abtahi wrote that "it would be in Iran's interest to end this conflict as swiftly as possible through diplomacy." Although the marines are still formally in custody, Iranians are already weighing the long-term impact of the crisis. "One result might be that the U.S. gets the message that diplomacy is more effective than force," says Mohebbian. "If you can untie a knot with your hands, you're better off than using your teeth."