A New Sadr-Maliki Showdown

Iraq's Sunni-Shi'ite sectarian war is so vicious and total that it's difficult to imagine what might come after. But recent fighting and political maneuvering suggests that an intra-Shi'ite crackup may loom if and when Iraq's dominant sect consolidates its grip on power.

Ministers loyal to the anti-American Shi'ite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr said today they were leaving their positions in the government of Nouri al-Maliki, Iraq's Shi'ite Prime Minister. Sadrist political pressure on the Maliki government is nothing new. But today's walkout caps several weeks of often violent competition for public support and political control in Shi'ite Iraq.

The Maliki government is caught between its support for the American troop surge and its reliance on the support of the Sadrist block in parliament. With its announcement that it will leave the government, the Sadrists have made it clear to Maliki that they believe he has moved too close to the American position.

Nassar al-Rubaie, a member of parliament and a spokesman for the Sadr bloc, couched his group's actions as a benefit to the Maliki government. Without Sadrists muddying the picture, Rubaie said, the Maliki government will be able to avoid accusations that it pursues a sectarian agenda at the expense of Iraq's Sunni minority. Rubaie also said he and his colleagues were disappointed by the lack of progress on issues ranging from security to electricity.

But the overriding issue was the question of a U.S. troop withdrawal, which remains a nonnegotiable demand of Sadr and his followers. Rubaie said the Sadrists had tried to force the Americans from the country militarily in 2004, when the Mahdi Army clashed with Americans in the south. Rubaie cast the Sadr bloc's involvement with the government as an attempt to peacefully seek the withdrawal of American forces. And now, al-Rubaie says, the walkout represents an effort to pursue the same goal politically. "We didn't join the government because we wanted to be in the government," al-Rubaie he said. "We joined the government to help people. And since the government failed to keep its promises on security and social services, we don't want to be a part of it."

It's difficult to know whether the Sadrists' absence from the government will be protracted; it's hard to imagine they would willingly give up the power and influence they wield by virtue of controlling several of the country's key ministries. But as an act of political brinksmanship, the threatened resignations will put Maliki, once again, in the position of defending the American presence in Iraq. And even as Sadr burnishes his nationalist credentials, Maliki may have to acknowledge that his government cannot function without Sadrist support.

This kind of jockeying could be viewed as an encouraging sign of progress — a move away from violence and toward political solutions. But the reality is more discouraging: across Iraq the Mahdi Army alternates between political and military pressure, always making sure the Americans and the Iraqi government know it can resort to violence if its political demands aren't met. As Sadrist ministers were organizing their government walkout today, a protest organized in part by Sadr's Mahdi Army peacefully demanded the resignation of the provincial governor of Basra. Only last month a gunfight between the governor's men and the Mahdi Army wounded 12. This time there was no violence. But Sadr's group is ramping up the pressure.

Right now in Diwaniya, about 100 miles south of Baghdad, the intra-Shi'ite rift is taking the form of open battles. The surge in U.S. troops in Baghdad has only led to increased Shi'ite rivalry in southern Iraq, as militiamen sitting out the American surge in the capital migrate back to their natural base of support in the Shi'ite heartland.

Over the winter and early spring American soldiers based outside Diwaniya noticed an uptick in mortar attacks on their base as the Mahdi Army looked for vulnerable targets outside Baghdad. American advisers to the Iraqi Army in the area say the local police are either Mahdi Army themselves or intimidated by the militia. The Americans, along with their Iraqi Army counterparts, have launched a large-scale operation to break the Mahdi Army's grip on the city. But if the militia follows its usual modus operandi it will simply melt away or temporarily flee the city, waiting for an opportune moment to reassert itself.

This pattern of political confrontation and street violence may be the shape of a future Shi'ite crack-up. But it's unlikely that crack-up will come any time soon. With the Sunni insurgency still robust and more American troops flowing into the country, now is not the time for Sadr or his Shi'ite opponents to settle their internal conflicts. But as Shi'ite factions jockey for supremacy it's worth remembering that the end of one war in Iraq may simply be prelude to the start of another.