Olmert Woes Dim Peace Hopes

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Until about a week ago, Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert enjoyed a 3% approval rating. But after his handling of last year's Lebanon war was savaged in Tuesday's preliminary report by an official investigative panel, says former U.S. ambassador to Israel Martin S. Indyk, "If he survives, he'll have approval ratings at the level of the Dead Sea." At 400 meters below sea level, that's the lowest point on the planet.

Still, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice remains intent on returning to Israel later this month to press Olmert to hold negotiations over the creation of a Palestinian state with Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas. Indyk, now at the Brookings Institution, contends that Olmert "is a dead man walking and there's no way the Secretary of State is going to be able to do anything useful on the peace process in those circumstances. For him to make a move on the peace process without the trust of the Israeli people would be impossible. "

Former State Department Middle East negotiator Aaron David Miller concurs: "Olmert is being kicked around the Israeli political scene like a deflated soccer ball," says Miller. "That's not the kind of situation that is likely to lead to bold and decisive action. It's not rocket science that to make the kinds of bold decisions required really demands Arab and Israeli politicians who are masters of their politics — or at least managers of their politics." The Israeli investigative commission painted Olmert as a spectacularly inept manager in the conduct of the July war.

The U.S. and Israel are hoping to jump-start a new negotiation process by securing a public meeting between Olmert and the Saudi leadership — but that's not something the U.S. or Israel can deliver. Israel's U.S. ambassador Sallai Meridor on Wednesday expressed hope for a summit with the Saudis, Egypt and Jordan over the Arab League's peace plan, but there's no sign that the Saudis are about to comply. King Abdullah has kept his distance from Israel, insisting it is Israel's turn to offer concessions, and the Saudi leader recently denounced the U.S. presence in Iraq as "illegitimate," cooling relations between Riyadh and Washington.

Since January, Rice has been making a concerted effort to persuade the Israeli government to begin discussing the terms of a two-state solution with the Palestinians, but the Israelis remain reluctant to go beyond discussing practical security arrangements with a Palestinian leader sharing power with Hamas.

Rice's next visit to Jerusalem will be further complicated by the fact that Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, with whom Rice has formed a cordial professional bond, emerged this week as Olmert's chief rival. In the wake of the panel report, Livni called on Olmert to resign and and declared herself a candidate for leadership of the ruling Kadima party. Yet her move was perceived by many Israelis as weak and maladroit, says Daniel Levy, a former Israeli peace negotiator, because she didn't resign her post in Olmert's cabinet. Levy, now Director of the Prospects for Peace Initiative at the Century Foundation in Washington, says Livni's perceived timidity has not only undermined her own cause but also her usefulness to Rice.

Still, Levy says, it may be worth Rice going ahead with her planned visit, on the chance that Olmert survives the firestorm and is then emboldened to plunge ahead into difficult final-status talks on Israel's borders and the fate of the Palestinian refugees.

But that may be a long shot. Levy and other experts agree that for the present, Rice may have to content herself by working around the margins on less ambitious goals, such as maintaining the fragile cease-fire between the Israelis and Hamas, supporting Abbas in his political contest with Hamas, and nagging the Israelis to ease restrictions on Palestinians.

"Without a driver for the Israeli train, it may be several months," says Miller, now at Washington's Woodrow Wilson Center. Miller faults President Bush for neglecting the Israeli-Arab peace process for most of his presidency, but he acknowledges, "Without an Israeli partner, this is less about what happens here in Washington and more about what happens there. Much as I am disappointed, they [the Bush Administration] can't create an Israeli partner, so they're going to have to mark some time and try to keep the process alive."

All of which means that an American President and Secretary of State intent on salvaging their own legacy may have to look elsewhere.