What Sadr's Return Means for Iraq

The reappearance of Moqtada al Sadr comes at an inconvenient time for an Iraqi government struggling to keep up the appearance of political stability — and for U.S. military commanders trying to impose a degree of peace in Baghdad.

The firebrand Shi'ite leader conducted Friday prayers at the historic mosque in Kufa, near Najaf, his first public appearance in more than six months. Predictably, his speech was laden with anti-American rhetoric, and he demanded a timetable for the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq. Sadr has not been seen in public since last fall; in January, U.S. officials said he had fled to Tehran. His supporters said he was still in Najaf, but keeping a low profile because of threats to his life.

But his absence from view did not prevent Sadr from looming large over the political scene in Baghdad, where his loyalists make up the second-largest bloc in parliament and his militia, the Mahdi Army, control some of the largest neighborhoods. Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki depends on Sadr's support to keep his job. Nearly two months ago, he ordered six of his followers to resign from Maliki's cabinet, to protest against the government's failure to secure a withdrawal timetable from the Americans. But his loyalists remain in parliament, giving him a big say in any legislation that comes up for a vote.

And he hasn't withdrawn support for Maliki, keeping the Prime Minister beholden to him. Yesterday, when Maliki presented six new candidates for the ministries vacated by Sadr's people, he was careful to express his gratitude toward the cleric, thanking him for giving him "the authority to choose the ministers."

But Sadr's reemergence will likely make Maliki's job harder. At the very least, it will lend fresh impetus to calls for a withdrawal timetable. In recent weeks, more and more members of parliament have come around to Sadr's view on this, and indications are that most Iraqis — especially Shi'ites — agree. Neither Maliki nor President George Bush want to commit to a timetable, but if Sadr can orchestrate a groundswell of support — and he is adept at rousing his followers into a fury — the Prime Minister and President could find themselves pushed into a corner.

Sadr's comeback will also likely re-energize the Mahdi Army, which has kept a low profile in Baghdad since the start of the "surge" in U.S. troops. Sadr had initially ordered his militia not to engage the Americans; this lead to an immediate drop-off in the activities of Shi'ite death squads, lending credence to U.S. suspicions that many of these squads are from the Mahdi Army. But there have been indications recently that the death squads are being reactivated: the bodies of Sunnis have begun to turn up in Baghdad, bearing signs of gruesome torture and execution.

And finally, Sadr's return comes at a critical moment for the Shi'ite coalition that dominates the Iraqi parliament. His only real rival in Shi'ite politics, Abdel-Aziz Hakim of the Supreme Iraqi Islamic Council, was earlier this week diagnosed with lung cancer and is undergoing chemotherapy in Tehran. If the illness forces Hakim to stay away from the limelight for extended periods, it will leave Sadr as the main voice of Iraq's majority sect.