Will the U.N. Be Able to Help?

With foreign journalists locked out of the country by Burma's military government, this dispatch was written by TIME staff based on eyewitness reports.
[NOTE: The junta that runs the country imposed a systematic name change several years ago, decreeing that Burma was to be called Myanmar and the capital Rangoon was to be Yangon. The opposition has never accepted these changes; neither has the U.S. government. TIME continues to use Burma and Rangoon.]

This week many protesters called for the help of the United Nations, seeing it as one of the two higher powers that can dislodge their hated rulers. (Another is the U.S. military: during the last democracy uprising in 1988, people held placards urging America, "Please invade us.") Ibrahim Gambari, the U.N.'s special envoy to Burma, is on his way. In Rangoon, however, it seems Ibrahim Gambari has been on his way for days.

This will be Gambari's third visit. His previous two were short and unproductive. Mark Canning, British ambassador to Burma, told CNN today that Gambari had "the full backing of the international community," but few educated Burmese place much hope in him. Gambari's movements will be restricted and heavily monitored; Rangoon's state guesthouse, his gilded cage during the visit, is widely believed to be bugged.

"Will Gambari be able to talk to Suu Kyi?" a Burmese magazine editor asks rhetorically in a conversation with TIME. "Will he meet any political prisoners? Will he be allowed to talk to ordinary Burmese? I doubt it." Diplomats in Rangoon say the test will be not whether Gambari talks to both junta chief Gen. Than Shwe and democracy leader Suu Kyi; it will be whether he can kickstart talks between Than Shwe and Suu Kyi.

Then there's the influence of Burma's giant neighbor China — although its influence is surely now in question. After all, it has already failed to prevent a bloody crackdown. So do Burma's generals really care what Beijing says? "This is a pretty xenophobic government," says a Western diplomat in Rangoon. "They don't like foreigners in general. China has some influence but this is by no means a satellite of China. It's not like China can work miracles." China wants to see Burma make a "managed transition," the diplomat continues — not to democracy, but to "something with a more stable base of popular support." Whether the generals who rule Burma want that too is a completely different question.