Bush In Europe, The Sequel

His main goal is to project the aura of a statesman. While he, like Bill Clinton, is overwhelmingly focused on domestic goals and politics, George W. Bush has learned the hard way that voters do notice if their president appears inept on the world stage. His first months in office saw more missteps on foreign policy — from disavowing contacts with North Korea (since reversed) to angering Europe by bluntly dropping the Kyoto accords on global warming (since softened) to giving Europeans the jitters by suggesting a quick exit for U.S. troops from the Balkans (since abandoned) — than might have been expected from the son of the self-proclaimed Foreign Policy President, who assembled around him an experienced Washington team. The pictures of rampaging protestors all but certain to dominate coverage of the G-8 summit in Genoa will not exactly hurt him back home, but will not help either.

So the White House is placing heavy emphasis on good pictures to bracket the bad ones. The first stop, Britain, is a safe harbor for an American president; there's genuine affection on both sides, Bush can invoke the ";special relationship,"; and Tony Blair can be counted upon not to upbraid him in public. There will be lots of nice photo ops: lunch with Queen Elizabeth; reading to children in the newly refurbished reading room of the British Museum; visiting Winston Churchill's underground command center; and a summit with Blair at the Prime Minister's country house, Chequers. (Plus a 20-minute meeting with outgoing Conservative leader William Hague, who didn't quite manage to project Bush's sunny ";compassionate conservatism"; in his doomed bid to unseat Blair.) A joint press conference with Blair could be tricky, but no more than ten questions will be allowed, and Bush is usually fast enough on his feet to get by. After Genoa, Bush hobnobs with another conservative, Silvio Berlusconi, and visits the Pope at his summer place. All this will play well back home.

Meanwhile he has to do some business. That's where the trouble lies.

Officially, the leaders in Genoa will talk about AIDS, global poverty and debt reduction. On Tuesday, Bush announced some minor initiatives in these areas — hoping to emphasize the ";compassionate"; part of his politics, which have been more right-wing than he professed during the presidential campaign and driven some moderates away. But the real agenda is Bush's proposals for missile defense, and his denunciation of the Kyoto accords.

He's on difficult terrain. No European country likes the U.S. stance on either issue (though no European country had ratified Kyoto by the time Bush pronounced it dead on arrival). Moreover, his own administration is in some disarray on these matters, which means he will have trouble advancing an agenda to confound the critics.

On missile defense, some Pentagon officials have said the U.S. will soon abrogate the Anti Ballistic Missile treaty, which would alienate Europe as well as Moscow. Secretary of State Colin Powell has painted a fuzzier timeline. A successful test last weekend of an interceptor rocket has emboldened the hard-liners. But there is still no clear picture of the kind of system Bush wants: land-based or sea-based? Including Europe or not? If including Europe, how much will European governments have to pay for it, on top of their already-shrinking defense budgets? And will Bush — who criticized Clinton for stressing U.S. alliances — insist on NMD in the face of near-universal objections from U.S. allies? A U.S. diplomat says, ";Blair is going to want answers to some of these questions. He'll say, 'I want to help, but you've got to give me some answers; and if you can't give me the answers now, I need a timetable for when you can.' Otherwise he's going to have trouble keeping his backbenchers in line."; Other G-7 leaders will also press for more details — and given their own governing coalitions, for example the Social Democrats/Greens in Germany, may not be so disciplined as Blair in refusing to criticize Bush publicly.

The same is true for Kyoto. Bush has said he likes the idea of cutting greenhouse gases but just didn't like the way the Kyoto agreement set about doing it. So where's his alternative proposal? He would help U.S. standing in Europe if he had a serious plan. But there have been no leaks from Washington hinting he's got one in his briefcase.

Last time Bush was in Europe, other leaders reported they found him personally attractive and smarter than their (low) expectations. Exceeding low expectations has been a hallmark of Bush's success. At his second big gathering of world leaders, the bar will be set higher, and the kindness typically shown the new boy will be sharply less. They want something tangible. First impressions must now give way to delivery.