Can Pakistan's Military Be Trusted?

The mess in Pakistan should make us miss the Cold War — really miss it.

There was a time when Washington could call up Islamabad and order a jihad on the Red Army occupying Afghanistan — and Islamabad would salute. Islamabad was our loyal ally in the Cold War. Granted, no one in Washington was happy when Pakistan started developing a nuclear bomb in the '70s. Or when it finally tested one in May 1998. But still, we slept nights knowing that Pakistan's pro-American, Western-trained generals, our generals, had their fingers on the trigger.

Now, things aren't so clear. With the anarchy along the border with Afghanistan — Pashtunistan, as the Pakistanis call it — promising to spread, with Benazir Bhutto promising mass demonstrations, the courts closed and Musharraf promising the army will put down civil disobedience at the same time as he promises democratic elections in February, it's hard to tell where the generals stand.

With more than a little irony, even the Iranians are worried. "Pakistan is not a country, Pakistan is an army," an Iranian close to the regime in Tehran recently complained to me. "And it's an army you can't count on."

My Iranian friend tried to make the case that we would be better off with Tehran having a nuclear bomb than Pakistan's generals. Small comfort to Washington and Tel Aviv, but he was on to something.

The truth is Pakistan is an artificial country, its borders drawn by British colonial administrators in a fit of expediency, its people hopelessly divided along ethnic lines. None of it mattered, democracy or not, as long as the generals stood shoulder to shoulder and held off disintegration and chaos — kept the nukes safe, out of the hands of radicals. Let's hope the generals aren't having second thoughts.

One concern might be Pakistan's ethnic Pashtuns. They make up roughly 20% of Pakistan's officer corps and 25% of enlisted. Historically, they have faithfully served Pakistan, but since 9/11 their loyalty has been sorely tested. Osama bin Laden, al-Qaeda and the Taliban are holed up in Pashtunistan, on both sides of the remote, mountainous, impenetrable Pakistan-Afghan border — the rear base they use to wage jihad on Islamabad and Kabul. Al-Qaeda has at least the implicit support of the local Pashtuns, and, inevitably, Pashtuns are dying, both at our hands and the Pakistan army's. It has to be taking a toll on the loyalties of Pashtuns in Pakistan's army.

And that's just the start. With Benazir Bhutto now under house arrest, it's unclear where her supporters in the army stand. And if Musharraf really were to hold a free election in February, who would win? The last time there was a free election in the Middle East, Hamas won in Gaza.

The generals promise us the center will hold — the army is not going to disintegrate, and the nukes are safe behind lock and key. But then again, these are the same generals who apparently had no idea their head nuclear scientist A.Q. Khan was selling Pakistan's nuclear secrets to anyone who could pay.